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LLY · Forward model · Oncology · Ricks case

What has to happen in Oncology

Model as of

This page changes Oncology inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $855.29 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.72B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19.84B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The CEO's own framing, priced. Growth continues AND the company keeps spending into it - new manufacturing capacity, and pipeline bought through business development rather than harvested. In model terms that is trend growth 0.6 points a quarter above base with 2.5 points less margin, because the acquired in-process R&D charge that funds the pipeline is a permanent cost rather than the one-off it is presented as. It is worth more than base and less than bull, and it is the only case here in which faster growth costs something.

Oncology

Basis quarter$2.57B
Final quarter$3.72B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix10%

Verzenio plus a broadening portfolio - Jaypirca, Retevmo and the 2026 launch Inluriyo. At $2,570M it is 11.2% of revenue and grew 6.5% year over year, so it is ballast rather than growth: it funds the pipeline without changing the terminal value.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.41B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.61B Estimated
2026 Q1 $2.27B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.57B Reported
VerzenioJaypircaInluriyoother oncology
Sequential growth +1.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.6% deseasonalised, the average of the last four quarters on that series (+6.8%, -0.2%, -0.4%, +9.7%, then -2.4%).
Oncology

Latest: $3.72B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.81B
2024Q2 $2.16B
2024Q3 $2.23B
2024Q4 $2.55B
2025Q1 $1.95B
2025Q2 $2.41B
2025Q3 $2.41B
2025Q4 $2.61B
2026Q1 $2.27B
2026Q2 $2.57B
2026Q3E $2.62B
2026Q4E $2.92B
2027Q1E $2.36B
2027Q2E $2.80B
2027Q3E $2.85B
2027Q4E $3.16B
2028Q1E $2.55B
2028Q2E $3.02B
2028Q3E $3.07B
2028Q4E $3.40B
2029Q1E $2.75B
2029Q2E $3.25B
2029Q3E $3.30B
2029Q4E $3.65B
2030Q1E $2.95B
2030Q2E $3.48B
2030Q3E $3.54B
2030Q4E $3.91B
2031Q1E $3.15B
2031Q2E $3.72B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.876, 1.017, 1.016, 1.105] is the cleanest shape in the company: a 12% Q1 trough and a 10% Q4 peak, stable to within 0.023 across the two eight-quarter windows with residual noise of 0.022 log-points. It is consistent with US buy-and-bill oncology behaviour around benefit-year resets.
  • Verzenio is flat to slightly down in the US - 2026 Q2 US revenue $845M against $929M a year earlier - with outside-US growth carrying the line.
  • Inluriyo is a 2026 launch and booked $75M in the basis quarter, its second quarter of sales; it is inside this line, not broken out.
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