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JNJ · Forward model · Immunology · Bull case

What has to happen in Immunology

Model as of

This page changes Immunology inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $271.37 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.71B 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $27.11B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own framing: excluding STELARA, Innovative Medicine grew over 14% in the quarter, and the STELARA base is now only about 4% of the segment, so the cliff has nearly finished being a cliff. Add MedTech reacceleration and the oncology launch cohort compounding, and terminal growth runs 0.4 points a quarter above base with a point of extra margin. FY2026 is $101.37B, still inside guidance; FY2030 reaches $137.1B, growing 7.7%. At a 15.0x exit that is $271.37 a share, which is roughly today's price - this case justifies the quote rather than beating it.

Immunology

Basis quarter$3.84B
Final quarter$4.71B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix13%

TREMFYA's ramp is being run down by the STELARA biosimilar cliff; the line is the drag the rest of the model has to out-run.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.17B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.86B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.84B Reported
TREMFYASTELARA (eroding)SIMPONI/SIMPONI ARIAREMICADE (eroding)Other immunology
Sequential growth −0.3%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% -0.3% a quarter deseasonalised: the cliff is fading, the line was -3.7% year over year against -7.9% TTM.
Immunology

Latest: $4.71B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $4.11B
2023Q2 $4.50B
2023Q3 $4.85B
2023Q4 $4.59B
2024Q1 $4.25B
2024Q2 $4.72B
2024Q3 $4.62B
2024Q4 $4.24B
2025Q1 $3.71B
2025Q2 $3.99B
2025Q3 $4.17B
2025Q4 $3.86B
2026Q1 $3.38B
2026Q2 $3.84B
2026Q3E $3.98B
2026Q4E $3.76B
2027Q1E $3.45B
2027Q2E $3.87B
2027Q3E $4.04B
2027Q4E $3.84B
2028Q1E $3.54B
2028Q2E $3.99B
2028Q3E $4.19B
2028Q4E $4.00B
2029Q1E $3.70B
2029Q2E $4.19B
2029Q3E $4.40B
2029Q4E $4.21B
2030Q1E $3.90B
2030Q2E $4.43B
2030Q3E $4.66B
2030Q4E $4.47B
2031Q1E $4.15B
2031Q2E $4.71B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Management framed the drag two ways on the 15 July 2026 call, a secondary transcript: about 460bp on total-company operational growth, and STELARA at only 4% of Innovative Medicine sales in the quarter. The release itself puts the STELARA drag at about 760bp of segment growth.
  • Seasonality is applied here on the research recommendation: amplitude 14.6% against a 4.6% worst-quarter spread, repeated in all three windows. Part of the 0.915 Q1 factor is the January gross-to-net and payer reset, and part is the STELARA step-down landing in the same quarter.
  • The quarterly path is a decline plus a seasonal shape plus a cliff. Separating them is the single largest modelling judgement in this ticker, and the model resolves it by decaying the sequential rate from -0.3% up toward +1.2%.
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