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JNJ · Forward model · Other Innovative Medicine · Bull case

What has to happen in Other Innovative Medicine

Model as of

This page changes Other Innovative Medicine inside the complete JNJ model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JNJ forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $271.37 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.17B 9% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $19.80B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own framing: excluding STELARA, Innovative Medicine grew over 14% in the quarter, and the STELARA base is now only about 4% of the segment, so the cliff has nearly finished being a cliff. Add MedTech reacceleration and the oncology launch cohort compounding, and terminal growth runs 0.4 points a quarter above base with a point of extra margin. FY2026 is $101.37B, still inside guidance; FY2030 reaches $137.1B, growing 7.7%. At a 15.0x exit that is $271.37 a share, which is roughly today's price - this case justifies the quote rather than beating it.

Other Innovative Medicine

Basis quarter$2.80B
Final quarter$3.17B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix9%

Pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases and cardiovascular/metabolism/other - a roughly flat $2.8-2.9B a quarter tail around XARELTO, UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT and the HIV portfolio.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.93B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.90B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.80B Reported
Pulmonary hypertension (UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT/OPSYNVI)Infectious diseases (PREZISTA, EDURANT)XARELTOOther
Sequential growth +0.2%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% 0.2% a quarter: this tail printed -1.7% year over year and +1.2% TTM, flat within noise.
Other Innovative Medicine

Latest: $3.17B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $3.38B
2023Q2 $3.04B
2023Q3 $2.77B
2023Q4 $2.71B
2024Q1 $2.70B
2024Q2 $2.90B
2024Q3 $2.82B
2024Q4 $2.82B
2025Q1 $2.84B
2025Q2 $2.85B
2025Q3 $2.84B
2025Q4 $2.93B
2026Q1 $2.90B
2026Q2 $2.80B
2026Q3E $2.81B
2026Q4E $2.82B
2027Q1E $2.83B
2027Q2E $2.84B
2027Q3E $2.86B
2027Q4E $2.88B
2028Q1E $2.89B
2028Q2E $2.91B
2028Q3E $2.93B
2028Q4E $2.95B
2029Q1E $2.97B
2029Q2E $2.99B
2029Q3E $3.01B
2029Q4E $3.03B
2030Q1E $3.05B
2030Q2E $3.08B
2030Q3E $3.10B
2030Q4E $3.12B
2031Q1E $3.15B
2031Q2E $3.17B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This line is the only apportioned figure in the model: Innovative Medicine total less Oncology, Immunology and Neuroscience. It cross-checks to J&J's separately printed TOTAL PH, ID, CVM subtotal within $2M in all fourteen quarters, so it is a subtraction of disclosed numbers rather than an estimate.
  • Pulmonary hypertension, infectious disease and cardiovascular and metabolism: XARELTO, UPTRAVI, OPSUMIT and the HIV book, running $2.8-2.9B a quarter for eight quarters. Left aseasonal because the 3.5% amplitude is inside a 4.7% window spread.
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