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HOOD · Forward model · Other transaction · Bear case

What has to happen in Other transaction

Model as of

This page changes Other transaction inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $31.63 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $55M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $492M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Payment for order flow is capped or banned and takes the rate out of options and equities together. Sports event contracts lose their fight with state gaming regulators and the second-largest transaction line stops rather than slows. Rates fall faster than balances grow, so net interest shrinks. Crypto keeps bleeding at July's pace rather than the model's, and the multiple compresses to what a cyclical broker is worth.

Other transaction

Basis quarter$49M
Final quarter$55M
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix3%

The rest of the transaction book - futures, index options, ADR and proxy fees, and the smaller products Robinhood does not break out. $49M a quarter, growing steadily, and the line where new products live before they are big enough to name.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $45M Reported
2025 Q4 $46M Reported
2026 Q1 $43M Reported
2026 Q2 $49M Reported
FuturesIndex optionsADR, proxy and regulatory fees
Sequential growth +4.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 4% a quarter, the pace of the last six reported quarters.
Other transaction

Latest: $55M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $32M
2025Q2 $38M
2025Q3 $45M
2025Q4 $46M
2026Q1 $43M
2026Q2 $49M
2026Q3E $50M
2026Q4E $50M
2027Q1E $51M
2027Q2E $51M
2027Q3E $52M
2027Q4E $52M
2028Q1E $53M
2028Q2E $53M
2028Q3E $53M
2028Q4E $54M
2029Q1E $54M
2029Q2E $54M
2029Q3E $54M
2029Q4E $54M
2030Q1E $54M
2030Q2E $55M
2030Q3E $55M
2030Q4E $55M
2031Q1E $55M
2031Q2E $55M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth rate, because Robinhood publishes no volume for anything inside this line and building a units model on undisclosed volumes would be invention dressed as arithmetic.
  • 4% a quarter decaying to 2.5% is roughly the pace of the last six quarters, which have been unusually steady for a line that is supposed to be a catch-all.
  • This is where a product graduates from: whatever Robinhood breaks out next probably shows up here first, so a surprise in this line is more likely to be upward than downward.
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