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What has to happen in Options

Model as of

This page changes Options inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $210.25 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.37B 24% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $9.75B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Event contracts turn out to be a market rather than a fad and run into their ceiling early, options and equities keep taking share from the incumbent brokers, crypto turns with the cycle instead of bleeding, and Gold attach passes 40% as the card and Trump Accounts pull the subscription into everyday use. Net deposits keep running above $20B a quarter, so balances outgrow the rate cuts.

Options

Basis quarter$342M
Final quarter$1.37B
Implied CAGR+32%
Final revenue mix24%

Still the single largest product: 774 million contracts in 2026 Q2 at roughly 44 cents of revenue each. The most durable of the transaction lines because it is a habit rather than a trade - options volume held up through the crypto collapse of the last two quarters, and Robinhood keeps taking share.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $304M Reported
2025 Q4 $314M Reported
2026 Q1 $260M Reported
2026 Q2 $342M Reported
Single-leg and multi-leg options order flowOptions market-maker rebates
Units 774/qtr growing +6.0% per quarter 774 million contracts in 2026 Q2, a record, as reported. The unit here is one million contracts.
Price per unit $442000 drifting −0.5% per quarter $442,000 per million contracts - $342M over 774M contracts, or about 44 cents each.
Options

Latest: $1.37B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $240M
2025Q2 $265M
2025Q3 $304M
2025Q4 $314M
2026Q1 $260M
2026Q2 $342M
2026Q3E $366M
2026Q4E $392M
2027Q1E $420M
2027Q2E $450M
2027Q3E $482M
2027Q4E $517M
2028Q1E $554M
2028Q2E $594M
2028Q3E $636M
2028Q4E $682M
2029Q1E $732M
2029Q2E $784M
2029Q3E $841M
2029Q4E $902M
2030Q1E $968M
2030Q2E $1.04B
2030Q3E $1.11B
2030Q4E $1.19B
2031Q1E $1.28B
2031Q2E $1.37B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Modelled on contracts traded x revenue per contract because those are the two numbers Robinhood actually publishes monthly, which makes every quarter of this line checkable against a press release rather than against a forecast.
  • The unit is a MILLION contracts, not a contract: 774 units at $442,000 each. Same arithmetic, but it keeps the number at a scale a reader can move.
  • July 2026 alone was 324.2 million contracts, up 2% on June and 66% year over year - a 973 million pace for the September quarter. This line assumes 820 million, so it deliberately does not extrapolate a single strong month.
  • Revenue per contract drifts down 0.5% a quarter. Rebates are negotiated, order flow is competitive, and the direction of regulatory pressure on payment for order flow has only ever been one way.
  • The risk here is not volume, it is the rate: a ban or a cap on payment for order flow takes most of this line's revenue and leaves all of its volume.
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