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HOOD · Forward model · Cryptocurrencies · Bear case

What has to happen in Cryptocurrencies

Model as of

This page changes Cryptocurrencies inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

HOOD forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $31.63 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $22M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $455M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Payment for order flow is capped or banned and takes the rate out of options and equities together. Sports event contracts lose their fight with state gaming regulators and the second-largest transaction line stops rather than slows. Rates fall faster than balances grow, so net interest shrinks. Crypto keeps bleeding at July's pace rather than the model's, and the multiple compresses to what a cyclical broker is worth.

Cryptocurrencies

Basis quarter$100M
Final quarter$22M
Implied CAGR−26%
Final revenue mix1%

The line that used to be the swing factor and is now the drag: $100M in 2026 Q2, down 38% year over year, on $40B of notional across the app and Bitstamp. It is the only transaction line shrinking, and the company grew 32% anyway - which is the actual news in this quarter.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $268M Reported
2025 Q4 $221M Reported
2026 Q1 $134M Reported
2026 Q2 $100M Reported
Robinhood app crypto order flowBitstamp exchange volumeCrypto transfers and staking
Units 40/qtr growing −2.0% per quarter $40B of crypto notional in 2026 Q2 - $18B in the app, $22B on Bitstamp. The unit is $1B traded.
Price per unit $2M drifting 0.0% per quarter $2.5M per $1B traded - $100M over $40B, about 25 basis points.
Cryptocurrencies

Latest: $22M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $252M
2025Q2 $160M
2025Q3 $268M
2025Q4 $221M
2026Q1 $134M
2026Q2 $100M
2026Q3E $93M
2026Q4E $86M
2027Q1E $79M
2027Q2E $74M
2027Q3E $68M
2027Q4E $63M
2028Q1E $58M
2028Q2E $54M
2028Q3E $50M
2028Q4E $46M
2029Q1E $43M
2029Q2E $40M
2029Q3E $37M
2029Q4E $34M
2030Q1E $32M
2030Q2E $29M
2030Q3E $27M
2030Q4E $25M
2031Q1E $23M
2031Q2E $22M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Notional x take rate, in billions traded, because crypto revenue here is a spread on volume and the volume is published monthly for both the app and Bitstamp separately.
  • July was $10.9B of notional, down 33% on June - the app half down 38% and Bitstamp down 30%. A $32.7B pace against $40B in the June quarter, which is worse than the 2% quarterly decline this line assumes.
  • Modelled as a slow bleed rather than a cycle. That is knowingly wrong in both directions: crypto revenue at this company has quadrupled and halved inside eight quarters, and no smooth rate reproduces that. The bull and bear cases are where the cycle lives.
  • The take rate is held flat at $2.5M per billion. Robinhood's crypto spread has been more stable than its volume, and layering a price decline on top of a volume decline would double-count the same pessimism.
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