HOOD · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Robinhood discloses more than almost any company this size: five transaction-based product lines, net interest and other revenues, every quarter, plus monthly operating data. Nothing here is apportioned. All seven reported lines carry their filed figures for six quarters, taken from the Q2 2026 supplemental workbook (2026 Q2: options $342M, crypto $100M, equities $129M, event contracts $156M, other $49M, net interest $389M, other revenues $143M, $1,308M total). An eighth line, Robinhood Chain, has NO history and starts from zero in the projection - Vlad Tenev names it in the Q2 release, Robinhood reports no revenue for it, so it is not carved out of anything. What is assumed is the cost side: Robinhood publishes no segment expenses at all, so each vertical carries a contribution margin and the platform's shared cost sits in corporate overhead at 30% of revenue. One reconciliation note: the supplemental shows 2025 Q4 total net revenues of $1,283M where this site's stored series carries $1,280M; the filed workbook is used here.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $1.80B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $927M |
| 2025Q2 | $989M |
| 2025Q3 | $1.27B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.28B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.07B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.31B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.33B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.35B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.37B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.39B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.43B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.46B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.48B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.51B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.54B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.57B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.60B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.63B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.66B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.69B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.72B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.74B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.75B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.77B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.79B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.80B |
Where each case comes from
Vlad case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Vlad column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the company says it is becoming
- Jul 29, 2026 Whether it's the Robinhood Chain, Robinhood Ventures, or Trump Accounts, our product velocity is focused on one goal: making everyone an owner. Broad ownership is essential to a free, stable, and prosperous society.
- Jul 29, 2026 Our product velocity continues to deliver new products for customers and drive a more diversified business, with Robinhood Legend and the Credit Card business joining our growing roster of now thirteen different business lines that have reached $100 million-plus in annualized revenues.
What the June quarter actually printed
- Jul 29, 2026 The business is firing on all cylinders. We delivered record revenues and drove new highs across equity, option, and event contract volumes, as we continue to win market share.
- Jul 29, 2026 Total net revenues increased 32% year-over-year to a record $1.31 billion, with Gold Subscribers up 39% to 4.8 million and Net Deposits of $21.7 billion in the quarter.
What the months since have said
- Aug 12, 2026 Options Contracts Traded were 324.2 million in July, up 2% from June 2026 and up 66% year-over-year; Equity Notional Trading Volume was $332.8 billion, down 15% from June and up 59% year-over-year.
- Aug 12, 2026 Crypto Notional Trading Volume was $10.9 billion in July, down 33% from June 2026 and down 62% year-over-year, with Robinhood App volume of $4.3 billion and Bitstamp volume of $6.6 billion.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 13.0% a year with an exit multiple of 5.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $6.35B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $7.11B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $2.66B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 5.0x |
| Terminal value | $35.55B |
| Discounted at 13.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $19.30B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 75% |
| Enterprise value | $25.64B |
| Net cash | $3.20B |
| Equity value | $28.84B |
| Shares | 0.91B |
| Fair value per share | $31.63 |
| Against the deployed price of $112.50, as of | −72% |
9x terminal revenue against roughly 16x trailing at $91.53 today. The gap is the whole argument: today's multiple is paid for 32% growth and a business that added a $156M product line from nothing in four quarters, and the terminal year here grows 8%. If you think event contracts and Gold make this a platform rather than a broker, this is the number to raise - it moves the answer more than any operating assumption on the page.
Read the other way round: at $112.50 the market is paying 24.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Options | Event contracts | Equities | Cryptocurrencies | Other transaction | Net interest | Gold & services | Robinhood Chain & tokenization | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $352M | $157M | $129M | $93M | $50M | $394M | $152M | $0 | $1.33B | +4% | $483M | $26M | $365M | +32 | $354M |
| 2026 Q4E | $362M | $159M | $130M | $86M | $50M | $399M | $161M | $0 | $1.35B | +5% | $494M | $26M | $374M | +33 | $352M |
| 2027 Q1E | $372M | $161M | $131M | $79M | $51M | $404M | $170M | $0 | $1.37B | +28% | $505M | $26M | $383M | +56 | $350M |
| 2027 Q2E | $383M | $163M | $131M | $74M | $51M | $407M | $179M | $0 | $1.39B | +6% | $517M | $26M | $392M | +34 | $347M |
| 2027 Q3E | $394M | $165M | $132M | $68M | $52M | $411M | $188M | $20M | $1.43B | +8% | $515M | $29M | $389M | +35 | $334M |
| 2027 Q4E | $406M | $167M | $133M | $63M | $52M | $414M | $197M | $25M | $1.46B | +8% | $525M | $29M | $396M | +35 | $330M |
| 2028 Q1E | $418M | $170M | $134M | $58M | $53M | $417M | $206M | $30M | $1.48B | +9% | $536M | $30M | $405M | +36 | $327M |
| 2028 Q2E | $430M | $173M | $135M | $54M | $53M | $419M | $215M | $34M | $1.51B | +9% | $547M | $30M | $413M | +36 | $324M |
| 2028 Q3E | $443M | $176M | $136M | $50M | $53M | $421M | $224M | $37M | $1.54B | +8% | $559M | $31M | $422M | +35 | $321M |
| 2028 Q4E | $456M | $179M | $136M | $46M | $54M | $422M | $233M | $41M | $1.57B | +8% | $570M | $31M | $431M | +35 | $318M |
| 2029 Q1E | $470M | $183M | $137M | $43M | $54M | $424M | $243M | $44M | $1.60B | +8% | $582M | $32M | $441M | +35 | $315M |
| 2029 Q2E | $484M | $186M | $138M | $40M | $54M | $425M | $253M | $46M | $1.63B | +8% | $595M | $32M | $450M | +35 | $312M |
| 2029 Q3E | $499M | $190M | $139M | $37M | $54M | $425M | $262M | $49M | $1.66B | +7% | $607M | $32M | $459M | +35 | $309M |
| 2029 Q4E | $514M | $194M | $141M | $34M | $54M | $425M | $272M | $51M | $1.69B | +7% | $619M | $33M | $469M | +35 | $306M |
| 2030 Q1E | $529M | $198M | $142M | $32M | $54M | $425M | $283M | $53M | $1.72B | +7% | $631M | $33M | $478M | +35 | $302M |
| 2030 Q2E | $546M | $194M | $143M | $29M | $55M | $425M | $293M | $55M | $1.74B | +7% | $642M | $34M | $487M | +35 | $298M |
| 2030 Q3E | $562M | $180M | $144M | $27M | $55M | $424M | $304M | $56M | $1.75B | +6% | $651M | $34M | $494M | +34 | $294M |
| 2030 Q4E | $579M | $167M | $145M | $25M | $55M | $424M | $315M | $58M | $1.77B | +5% | $660M | $34M | $501M | +33 | $289M |
| 2031 Q1E | $597M | $156M | $146M | $23M | $55M | $422M | $327M | $59M | $1.79B | +4% | $669M | $34M | $508M | +32 | $284M |
| 2031 Q2E | $615M | $145M | $147M | $22M | $55M | $421M | $339M | $60M | $1.80B | +4% | $679M | $35M | $516M | +32 | $280M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | $94.42 | Initial model, built off the 2026 Q2 print and the Q2 supplemental workbook: $1,308M of net revenues, transaction revenue split across options $342M, event contracts $156M, equities $129M, crypto $100M and other $49M, net interest $389M on roughly $70B of balances, and $143M of Gold and services against 4.8M Gold subscribers. Every driver is calibrated against July 2026 monthly operating data, published 12 August. Eight verticals: the seven reported lines plus Robinhood Chain, which has no history and opens in 2027 Q3. |