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GOOGL · Forward model · Subscriptions, platforms & devices · Cloud backlog case

What has to happen in Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Model as of

This page changes Subscriptions, platforms & devices inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $647.82 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $23.72B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $115.31B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Google Cloud backlog ~$514B on the July 2026 call, after more than $460B in Q1. At the current $24.8B quarterly pace that is about five years of contracted work. This case pays for Cloud holding a faster sequential rate for longer on the same single line. It does not invent a conversion schedule, treat TPU hardware as recurring, or assume 2027 capex falls.

Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Basis quarter$12.91B
Final quarter$23.72B
Implied CAGR+13%
Final revenue mix6%

YouTube Premium, TV and Music, Google One, Play, Pixel and other consumer products. $12,911M in the basis quarter, +15%. Q1 2026: 350 million paid subscriptions. Devices and Play sit in the same line, so subscribers × ARPU would invent a mix.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $12.87B Reported
2025 Q4 $13.58B Reported
2026 Q1 $12.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $12.91B Reported
YouTube Premium, TV and MusicGoogle One / Gemini consumer plansGoogle PlayPixel and other devices
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% Q2/Q1 was +4.3%. 3.5% is about the +15% YoY, not a Pixel-launch quarter.
Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Latest: $23.72B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $10.38B
2025Q2 $11.20B
2025Q3 $12.87B
2025Q4 $13.58B
2026Q1 $12.38B
2026Q2 $12.91B
2026Q3E $13.43B
2026Q4E $13.94B
2027Q1E $14.46B
2027Q2E $14.97B
2027Q3E $15.48B
2027Q4E $15.99B
2028Q1E $16.51B
2028Q2E $17.02B
2028Q3E $17.54B
2028Q4E $18.06B
2029Q1E $18.59B
2029Q2E $19.13B
2029Q3E $19.67B
2029Q4E $20.22B
2030Q1E $20.78B
2030Q2E $21.35B
2030Q3E $21.93B
2030Q4E $22.51B
2031Q1E $23.11B
2031Q2E $23.72B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • 350M paid subscriptions and Gemini App 950M MAU are not turned into a subscription driver. The line also has Pixel and Play. ARPU would be an invented mix.
  • Inventory $9,991M vs $2,439M at year-end 2025. Device mix is real in this quarter and is why opening capex intensity is 12%.
  • YouTube subscriptions sit here, YouTube ads sit next door. Do not double-count YouTube.
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