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GOOGL · Forward model · Subscriptions, platforms & devices · Bear case

What has to happen in Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Model as of

This page changes Subscriptions, platforms & devices inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $113.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $12.94B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $58.75B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search AI substitutes for queries, Cloud utilisation misses the $514B backlog, and capex stays elevated into 2028. What this case does NOT assume is a Chrome divestiture or a collapse of YouTube. It says 2026 was the peak growth year and the build does not earn its cost of capital.

Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Basis quarter$12.91B
Final quarter$12.94B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix10%

YouTube Premium, TV and Music, Google One, Play, Pixel and other consumer products. $12,911M in the basis quarter, +15%. Q1 2026: 350 million paid subscriptions. Devices and Play sit in the same line, so subscribers × ARPU would invent a mix.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $12.87B Reported
2025 Q4 $13.58B Reported
2026 Q1 $12.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $12.91B Reported
YouTube Premium, TV and MusicGoogle One / Gemini consumer plansGoogle PlayPixel and other devices
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% Q2/Q1 was +4.3%. 3.5% is about the +15% YoY, not a Pixel-launch quarter.
Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Latest: $12.94B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $10.38B
2025Q2 $11.20B
2025Q3 $12.87B
2025Q4 $13.58B
2026Q1 $12.38B
2026Q2 $12.91B
2026Q3E $13.03B
2026Q4E $13.12B
2027Q1E $13.20B
2027Q2E $13.26B
2027Q3E $13.30B
2027Q4E $13.33B
2028Q1E $13.35B
2028Q2E $13.36B
2028Q3E $13.35B
2028Q4E $13.34B
2029Q1E $13.32B
2029Q2E $13.30B
2029Q3E $13.27B
2029Q4E $13.23B
2030Q1E $13.19B
2030Q2E $13.15B
2030Q3E $13.10B
2030Q4E $13.05B
2031Q1E $13.00B
2031Q2E $12.94B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • 350M paid subscriptions and Gemini App 950M MAU are not turned into a subscription driver. The line also has Pixel and Play. ARPU would be an invented mix.
  • Inventory $9,991M vs $2,439M at year-end 2025. Device mix is real in this quarter and is why opening capex intensity is 12%.
  • YouTube subscriptions sit here, YouTube ads sit next door. Do not double-count YouTube.
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