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What has to happen in Google Cloud

Model as of

This page changes Google Cloud inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $647.82 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $232.87B 59% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$302.78B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Google Cloud backlog ~$514B on the July 2026 call, after more than $460B in Q1. At the current $24.8B quarterly pace that is about five years of contracted work. This case pays for Cloud holding a faster sequential rate for longer on the same single line. It does not invent a conversion schedule, treat TPU hardware as recurring, or assume 2027 capex falls.

Google Cloud

Basis quarter$24.77B
Final quarter$232.87B
Implied CAGR+57%
Final revenue mix59%

GCP, Workspace and, from Q2 2026, TPU system sales. $24,768M in the basis quarter, +82%, sequential +24% from Q1 $20,028M. Operating income $8,814M, margin 35.6% vs 20.7% a year ago. Backlog ~$514B is contracted work, not live MW. No utilisation series, so sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $15.16B Reported
2025 Q4 $17.66B Reported
2026 Q1 $20.03B Reported
2026 Q2 $24.77B Reported
Google Cloud Platform (AI infrastructure and solutions)Google WorkspaceOther enterprise cloud servicesTPU system sales
Sequential growth +10.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% Q2/Q1 was +24%. 10% QoQ is ~46% annual, half of +82% YoY, not a repeat of the TPU step.
Google Cloud

Latest: $232.87B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $12.26B
2025Q2 $13.62B
2025Q3 $15.16B
2025Q4 $17.66B
2026Q1 $20.03B
2026Q2 $24.77B
2026Q3E $28.74B
2026Q4E $33.10B
2027Q1E $37.87B
2027Q2E $43.07B
2027Q3E $48.75B
2027Q4E $54.94B
2028Q1E $61.69B
2028Q2E $69.05B
2028Q3E $77.07B
2028Q4E $85.81B
2029Q1E $95.35B
2029Q2E $105.77B
2029Q3E $117.15B
2029Q4E $129.58B
2030Q1E $143.17B
2030Q2E $158.03B
2030Q3E $174.28B
2030Q4E $192.07B
2031Q1E $211.55B
2031Q2E $232.87B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not use 24% sequential as the opening rate. That quarter includes first TPU system sales. 10% QoQ is already a very fast cloud.
  • Backlog ~$514B is call-only and is remaining performance obligation, not capacity in MW. It is the named case, not a capacity driver.
  • Cloud FCF is deeply negative at 50% EBITDA minus 140% capex. That is the point of the model, not a bug. 2027 capex is guided higher, so intensity glides slowly.
  • Segment operating income is disclosed at 35.6%. D&A by segment is not. The 50% EBITDA is assumed as operating income plus most of company D&A.
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