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GOOGL · Forward model · YouTube ads · Cloud backlog case

What has to happen in YouTube ads

Model as of

This page changes YouTube ads inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $647.82 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $18.42B 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $92.11B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Google Cloud backlog ~$514B on the July 2026 call, after more than $460B in Q1. At the current $24.8B quarterly pace that is about five years of contracted work. This case pays for Cloud holding a faster sequential rate for longer on the same single line. It does not invent a conversion schedule, treat TPU hardware as recurring, or assume 2027 capex falls.

YouTube ads

Basis quarter$11.05B
Final quarter$18.42B
Implied CAGR+11%
Final revenue mix5%

Advertising on YouTube. $11,055M in the basis quarter, +13%. Direct response and brand, with living-room strength. Watch time is not a quarterly ARPU series, so the driver is sequential growth on the disclosed line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $10.26B Reported
2025 Q4 $11.38B Reported
2026 Q1 $9.88B Reported
2026 Q2 $11.05B Reported
YouTube in-stream and Shorts adsYouTube TV advertisingDirect-response and brand
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% Q2/Q1 was +12% on seasonality. 3% is about the +13% YoY, not a World Cup repeat.
YouTube ads

Latest: $18.42B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $8.93B
2025Q2 $9.80B
2025Q3 $10.26B
2025Q4 $11.38B
2026Q1 $9.88B
2026Q2 $11.05B
2026Q3E $11.44B
2026Q4E $11.83B
2027Q1E $12.20B
2027Q2E $12.57B
2027Q3E $12.94B
2027Q4E $13.30B
2028Q1E $13.66B
2028Q2E $14.02B
2028Q3E $14.38B
2028Q4E $14.73B
2029Q1E $15.09B
2029Q2E $15.45B
2029Q3E $15.81B
2029Q4E $16.17B
2030Q1E $16.54B
2030Q2E $16.91B
2030Q3E $17.28B
2030Q4E $17.65B
2031Q1E $18.04B
2031Q2E $18.42B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • YouTube ads are not YouTube the franchise. Subscriptions sit on the other Services line. FY2025 YouTube ads-plus-subs exceeded $60B; that mix is not a vertical here.
  • Q2 included World Cup viewership (1.7B unique viewers in the CEO quote). Opening 3% does not assume another event of that size.
  • Same Services operating-income limitation as Search: 44% EBITDA is assumed because Alphabet does not split the P&L.
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