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GOOGL · Forward model · Hedging · Cloud backlog case

What has to happen in Hedging

Model as of

This page changes Hedging inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $647.82 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $117M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $36M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Google Cloud backlog ~$514B on the July 2026 call, after more than $460B in Q1. At the current $24.8B quarterly pace that is about five years of contracted work. This case pays for Cloud holding a faster sequential rate for longer on the same single line. It does not invent a conversion schedule, treat TPU hardware as recurring, or assume 2027 capex falls.

Hedging

Basis quarter$106M
Final quarter$117M
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix0%

Foreign-exchange hedging gains and losses on revenue, not allocated to segments. $106M in the basis quarter after $(180)M in Q1. Required so the seven lines sum to $119,796M. Held flat at the last print with no economics.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 −$207M Reported
2025 Q4 −$68M Reported
2026 Q1 −$180M Reported
2026 Q2 $106M Reported
Revenue hedges
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% FX noise. Hold the last print. Do not trend a hedge gain.
Hedging

Latest: $117M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $260M
2025Q2 −$112M
2025Q3 −$207M
2025Q4 −$68M
2026Q1 −$180M
2026Q2 $106M
2026Q3E $107M
2026Q4E $107M
2027Q1E $108M
2027Q2E $108M
2027Q3E $109M
2027Q4E $109M
2028Q1E $110M
2028Q2E $110M
2028Q3E $111M
2028Q4E $111M
2029Q1E $112M
2029Q2E $113M
2029Q3E $113M
2029Q4E $114M
2030Q1E $114M
2030Q2E $115M
2030Q3E $115M
2030Q4E $116M
2031Q1E $117M
2031Q2E $117M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Included only so vertical totals match consolidated revenue. Folding $106M into Search would hide a disclosed line.
  • The projection holds $106M a quarter. Individual future quarters will not look like that. It does not matter to fair value.
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