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GOOGL · Forward model · Google Network · Cloud backlog case

What has to happen in Google Network

Model as of

This page changes Google Network inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $647.82 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.81B 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $49.04B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Google Cloud backlog ~$514B on the July 2026 call, after more than $460B in Q1. At the current $24.8B quarterly pace that is about five years of contracted work. This case pays for Cloud holding a faster sequential rate for longer on the same single line. It does not invent a conversion schedule, treat TPU hardware as recurring, or assume 2027 capex falls.

Google Network

Basis quarter$7.30B
Final quarter$7.81B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix2%

Ads on partner sites and apps. $7,303M in the basis quarter, −0.7% year over year, the only shrinking advertising line. Kept separate so Search's +17% is not mixed with a partner-TAC decline.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7.35B Reported
2025 Q4 $7.83B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.97B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.30B Reported
AdSenseAdMobGoogle Ad Manager partner ads
Sequential growth −0.5%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% YoY −0.7% and a two-year fade. −0.5% QoQ keeps shrinking slowly, not a collapse.
Google Network

Latest: $7.81B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $7.26B
2025Q2 $7.35B
2025Q3 $7.35B
2025Q4 $7.83B
2026Q1 $6.97B
2026Q2 $7.30B
2026Q3E $7.30B
2026Q4E $7.31B
2027Q1E $7.32B
2027Q2E $7.33B
2027Q3E $7.35B
2027Q4E $7.37B
2028Q1E $7.39B
2028Q2E $7.42B
2028Q3E $7.44B
2028Q4E $7.47B
2029Q1E $7.50B
2029Q2E $7.53B
2029Q3E $7.57B
2029Q4E $7.60B
2030Q1E $7.63B
2030Q2E $7.67B
2030Q3E $7.70B
2030Q4E $7.74B
2031Q1E $7.78B
2031Q2E $7.81B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the line that would be hidden if advertising were one vertical. It has been flat-to-down for two years. Do not fold it into Search.
  • 44% EBITDA is the Services blend and likely generous because TAC is concentrated here. The alternative is inventing a TAC split Alphabet does not publish.
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