← GOOGL forward model

GOOGL · Forward model · Subscriptions, platforms & devices · Bull case

What has to happen in Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Model as of

This page changes Subscriptions, platforms & devices inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $519.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $28.92B 10% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $133.88B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search keeps compounding on AI-driven queries, Cloud mix stays at the 35%+ operating margin, and the capex-to-revenue ratio starts falling before 2028. What this case does NOT reach is the $514B backlog converting on a numbered path — that is the named case — and it does not assume Waymo is a material P&L.

Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Basis quarter$12.91B
Final quarter$28.92B
Implied CAGR+18%
Final revenue mix10%

YouTube Premium, TV and Music, Google One, Play, Pixel and other consumer products. $12,911M in the basis quarter, +15%. Q1 2026: 350 million paid subscriptions. Devices and Play sit in the same line, so subscribers × ARPU would invent a mix.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $12.87B Reported
2025 Q4 $13.58B Reported
2026 Q1 $12.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $12.91B Reported
YouTube Premium, TV and MusicGoogle One / Gemini consumer plansGoogle PlayPixel and other devices
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% Q2/Q1 was +4.3%. 3.5% is about the +15% YoY, not a Pixel-launch quarter.
Subscriptions, platforms & devices

Latest: $28.92B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $10.38B
2025Q2 $11.20B
2025Q3 $12.87B
2025Q4 $13.58B
2026Q1 $12.38B
2026Q2 $12.91B
2026Q3E $13.56B
2026Q4E $14.22B
2027Q1E $14.89B
2027Q2E $15.57B
2027Q3E $16.27B
2027Q4E $16.97B
2028Q1E $17.69B
2028Q2E $18.42B
2028Q3E $19.18B
2028Q4E $19.94B
2029Q1E $20.73B
2029Q2E $21.54B
2029Q3E $22.37B
2029Q4E $23.23B
2030Q1E $24.11B
2030Q2E $25.01B
2030Q3E $25.94B
2030Q4E $26.91B
2031Q1E $27.90B
2031Q2E $28.92B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • 350M paid subscriptions and Gemini App 950M MAU are not turned into a subscription driver. The line also has Pixel and Play. ARPU would be an invented mix.
  • Inventory $9,991M vs $2,439M at year-end 2025. Device mix is real in this quarter and is why opening capex intensity is 12%.
  • YouTube subscriptions sit here, YouTube ads sit next door. Do not double-count YouTube.
GOOGL model map

Explore another vertical