GOOGL · Forward model · Cloud backlog case
The Cloud backlog case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Alphabet reports THREE segments — Google Services, Google Cloud, Other Bets — and splits Services into Search, YouTube ads, Network, and subscriptions/platforms/devices on the face of the release. This model copies those six operating lines plus hedging so the $119,796M reconciles. Do not fold Network into Search: it shrank 0.7% while Search grew 17%. Do not turn Gemini 950M MAU or 350M paid subscriptions into a subscription driver: they share a line with Pixel and Play. Do not turn Cloud backlog into MW. GAAP EPS $9.11 includes a $6.26 unrealised equity-security gain; the operating tell is $40,770M of operating income and −$5,855M of FCF. Segment 'EBITDA' is operating income plus an assumed D&A add-back; Alphabet does not publish D&A by segment. Capex $44,924M is charged mostly to Cloud at 140% of Cloud revenue. Alphabet-level activities $5,789M are 4.8% corporate overhead. netCash is cash+marketable $242,474M less LTD $98,165M. Diluted shares 12,309M. Hedging is FX noise held flat.
Shares this page's scenario. Driver and horizon edits stay in your browser — the recipient sees the published model.
Latest: $393.04B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $90.23B |
| 2025Q2 | $96.43B |
| 2025Q3 | $102.35B |
| 2025Q4 | $113.83B |
| 2026Q1 | $109.90B |
| 2026Q2 | $119.80B |
| 2026Q3E | $127.23B |
| 2026Q4E | $134.99B |
| 2027Q1E | $143.10B |
| 2027Q2E | $151.60B |
| 2027Q3E | $160.53B |
| 2027Q4E | $169.94B |
| 2028Q1E | $179.89B |
| 2028Q2E | $190.42B |
| 2028Q3E | $201.60B |
| 2028Q4E | $213.51B |
| 2029Q1E | $226.21B |
| 2029Q2E | $239.79B |
| 2029Q3E | $254.34B |
| 2029Q4E | $269.97B |
| 2030Q1E | $286.77B |
| 2030Q2E | $304.87B |
| 2030Q3E | $324.40B |
| 2030Q4E | $345.50B |
| 2031Q1E | $368.32B |
| 2031Q2E | $393.04B |
Where each case comes from
Cloud backlog case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Cloud backlog column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings release and call, 22 July 2026
- Jul 22, 2026 Google Cloud saw a meaningful acceleration in growth as revenues increased 82% to $24.8 billion, led by an increase in Google Cloud Platform (GCP) across enterprise AI Solutions and enterprise AI Infrastructure, as well as core GCP services.
- Jul 22, 2026 Q2 was an amazing quarter, with Alphabet revenues growing 24% year-over-year and Google Cloud revenues accelerating to 82% growth, driven by demand for AI infrastructure and AI solutions.
- Apr 29, 2026 Google Cloud revenues grew 63% with backlog nearly doubling quarter on quarter to over $460 billion.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 8.5% a year with an exit multiple of 8.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $214.94B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $1.43T |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $643.44B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 8.0x |
| Terminal value | $11.45T |
| Discounted at 8.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $7.61T |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 97% |
| Enterprise value | $7.83T |
| Net cash | $144.31B |
| Equity value | $7.97T |
| Shares | 12.31B |
| Fair value per share | $647.82 |
| Against the deployed price of $344.08, as of | +88% |
9% is a point above Microsoft's 8.5%: FCF went negative this quarter, 2027 capex is guided higher, and the stock is dual-class. Exit 6.5x terminal-year revenue vs about 9.3x TTM $446B today. Microsoft's model uses 7x. At $348.06 on 12.309B diluted shares the equity is ~$4.28T; net cash $144B puts EV ~$4.14T. Move the exit multiple and Cloud's opening growth before anything else. GAAP EPS is not the tell: $6.26 of the $9.11 is an unrealised equity mark.
Read the other way round: at $344.08 the market is paying 4.1x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Google Search & other | YouTube ads | Google Network | Subscriptions, platforms & devices | Google Cloud | Other Bets | Hedging | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $65.81B | $11.44B | $7.30B | $13.43B | $28.74B | $392M | $107M | $127.23B | +24% | $53.13B | $47.12B | $4.74B | +28 | $4.65B |
| 2026 Q4E | $68.30B | $11.83B | $7.31B | $13.94B | $33.10B | $401M | $107M | $134.99B | +19% | $56.60B | $50.25B | $5.02B | +22 | $4.82B |
| 2027 Q1E | $70.73B | $12.20B | $7.32B | $14.46B | $37.87B | $411M | $108M | $143.10B | +30% | $60.25B | $53.42B | $5.40B | +34 | $5.08B |
| 2027 Q2E | $73.12B | $12.57B | $7.33B | $14.97B | $43.07B | $422M | $108M | $151.60B | +27% | $64.10B | $56.64B | $5.89B | +30 | $5.43B |
| 2027 Q3E | $75.47B | $12.94B | $7.35B | $15.48B | $48.75B | $432M | $109M | $160.53B | +26% | $68.16B | $59.95B | $6.49B | +30 | $5.86B |
| 2027 Q4E | $77.79B | $13.30B | $7.37B | $15.99B | $54.94B | $443M | $109M | $169.94B | +26% | $72.47B | $63.35B | $7.20B | +30 | $6.37B |
| 2028 Q1E | $80.07B | $13.66B | $7.39B | $16.51B | $61.69B | $454M | $110M | $179.89B | +26% | $77.03B | $66.86B | $8.03B | +30 | $6.97B |
| 2028 Q2E | $82.34B | $14.02B | $7.42B | $17.02B | $69.05B | $466M | $110M | $190.42B | +26% | $81.89B | $70.52B | $8.98B | +30 | $7.63B |
| 2028 Q3E | $84.59B | $14.38B | $7.44B | $17.54B | $77.07B | $477M | $111M | $201.60B | +26% | $87.07B | $74.35B | $10.05B | +31 | $8.36B |
| 2028 Q4E | $86.82B | $14.73B | $7.47B | $18.06B | $85.81B | $489M | $111M | $213.51B | +26% | $92.61B | $78.38B | $11.24B | +31 | $9.17B |
| 2029 Q1E | $89.05B | $15.09B | $7.50B | $18.59B | $95.35B | $502M | $112M | $226.21B | +26% | $98.54B | $82.65B | $12.56B | +31 | $10.03B |
| 2029 Q2E | $91.28B | $15.45B | $7.53B | $19.13B | $105.77B | $514M | $113M | $239.79B | +26% | $104.91B | $87.17B | $14.01B | +32 | $10.97B |
| 2029 Q3E | $93.51B | $15.81B | $7.57B | $19.67B | $117.15B | $527M | $113M | $254.34B | +26% | $111.75B | $92.00B | $15.60B | +32 | $11.97B |
| 2029 Q4E | $95.74B | $16.17B | $7.60B | $20.22B | $129.58B | $540M | $114M | $269.97B | +26% | $119.11B | $97.16B | $17.34B | +33 | $13.03B |
| 2030 Q1E | $97.98B | $16.54B | $7.63B | $20.78B | $143.17B | $554M | $114M | $286.77B | +27% | $127.06B | $102.70B | $19.24B | +33 | $14.17B |
| 2030 Q2E | $100.24B | $16.91B | $7.67B | $21.35B | $158.03B | $568M | $115M | $304.87B | +27% | $135.64B | $108.67B | $21.30B | +34 | $15.37B |
| 2030 Q3E | $102.51B | $17.28B | $7.70B | $21.93B | $174.28B | $582M | $115M | $324.40B | +28% | $144.92B | $115.11B | $23.55B | +35 | $16.65B |
| 2030 Q4E | $104.81B | $17.65B | $7.74B | $22.51B | $192.07B | $597M | $116M | $345.50B | +28% | $154.97B | $122.07B | $25.99B | +36 | $18.00B |
| 2031 Q1E | $107.12B | $18.04B | $7.78B | $23.11B | $211.55B | $612M | $117M | $368.32B | +28% | $165.86B | $129.61B | $28.64B | +36 | $19.44B |
| 2031 Q2E | $109.46B | $18.42B | $7.81B | $23.72B | $232.87B | $627M | $117M | $393.04B | +29% | $177.69B | $137.79B | $31.52B | +37 | $20.96B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | $311.82 | Initial model. Seven verticals on the disclosed revenue lines so $119,796M reconciles, basis the June quarter, Cloud +82% the claim, Cloud backlog the named case. |