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GOOGL · Forward model · Google Search & other · Cloud backlog case

What has to happen in Google Search & other

Model as of

This page changes Google Search & other inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $647.82 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $109.46B 28% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $522.25B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Google Cloud backlog ~$514B on the July 2026 call, after more than $460B in Q1. At the current $24.8B quarterly pace that is about five years of contracted work. This case pays for Cloud holding a faster sequential rate for longer on the same single line. It does not invent a conversion schedule, treat TPU hardware as recurring, or assume 2027 capex falls.

Google Search & other

Basis quarter$63.27B
Final quarter$109.46B
Implied CAGR+12%
Final revenue mix28%

Advertising on Google Search and other Google properties. $63,271M in the basis quarter, 53% of the company, +17% year over year. Pichai says AI features are driving query growth. There is no published quarterly query or RPM series, so the driver is sequential growth on the disclosed line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $56.57B Reported
2025 Q4 $63.07B Reported
2026 Q1 $60.40B Reported
2026 Q2 $63.27B Reported
Google Search adsOther Google properties advertising
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% Q2/Q1 was +4.8%. 3.5% is a slower step, about 15% a year against +17% YoY, not a Q4 spike.
Google Search & other

Latest: $109.46B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $50.70B
2025Q2 $54.19B
2025Q3 $56.57B
2025Q4 $63.07B
2026Q1 $60.40B
2026Q2 $63.27B
2026Q3E $65.81B
2026Q4E $68.30B
2027Q1E $70.73B
2027Q2E $73.12B
2027Q3E $75.47B
2027Q4E $77.79B
2028Q1E $80.07B
2028Q2E $82.34B
2028Q3E $84.59B
2028Q4E $86.82B
2029Q1E $89.05B
2029Q2E $91.28B
2029Q3E $93.51B
2029Q4E $95.74B
2030Q1E $97.98B
2030Q2E $100.24B
2030Q3E $102.51B
2030Q4E $104.81B
2031Q1E $107.12B
2031Q2E $109.46B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not treat Search as dying. +17% on a $63B quarter is the print. The AI-substitution case is the bear, not the base.
  • Google Services operating income $39,544M is not split among Search, YouTube, Network and subscriptions. The 44% EBITDA is assumed, not disclosed, on this line.
  • Q4 is seasonally the strongest Search quarter ($63,073M in 2025 Q4 vs $56,567M in Q3). The projection is smooth; read the annual totals.
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