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GOOGL · Forward model · Google Network · Bull case

What has to happen in Google Network

Model as of

This page changes Google Network inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $519.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $9.53B 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $56.15B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search keeps compounding on AI-driven queries, Cloud mix stays at the 35%+ operating margin, and the capex-to-revenue ratio starts falling before 2028. What this case does NOT reach is the $514B backlog converting on a numbered path — that is the named case — and it does not assume Waymo is a material P&L.

Google Network

Basis quarter$7.30B
Final quarter$9.53B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix3%

Ads on partner sites and apps. $7,303M in the basis quarter, −0.7% year over year, the only shrinking advertising line. Kept separate so Search's +17% is not mixed with a partner-TAC decline.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7.35B Reported
2025 Q4 $7.83B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.97B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.30B Reported
AdSenseAdMobGoogle Ad Manager partner ads
Sequential growth −0.5%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% YoY −0.7% and a two-year fade. −0.5% QoQ keeps shrinking slowly, not a collapse.
Google Network

Latest: $9.53B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $7.26B
2025Q2 $7.35B
2025Q3 $7.35B
2025Q4 $7.83B
2026Q1 $6.97B
2026Q2 $7.30B
2026Q3E $7.38B
2026Q4E $7.45B
2027Q1E $7.54B
2027Q2E $7.63B
2027Q3E $7.72B
2027Q4E $7.82B
2028Q1E $7.92B
2028Q2E $8.03B
2028Q3E $8.14B
2028Q4E $8.25B
2029Q1E $8.37B
2029Q2E $8.49B
2029Q3E $8.61B
2029Q4E $8.73B
2030Q1E $8.86B
2030Q2E $8.99B
2030Q3E $9.12B
2030Q4E $9.25B
2031Q1E $9.39B
2031Q2E $9.53B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the line that would be hidden if advertising were one vertical. It has been flat-to-down for two years. Do not fold it into Search.
  • 44% EBITDA is the Services blend and likely generous because TAC is concentrated here. The alternative is inventing a TAC split Alphabet does not publish.
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