← GOOGL forward model

GOOGL · Forward model · Google Network · Bear case

What has to happen in Google Network

Model as of

This page changes Google Network inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $113.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.26B 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $26.44B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search AI substitutes for queries, Cloud utilisation misses the $514B backlog, and capex stays elevated into 2028. What this case does NOT assume is a Chrome divestiture or a collapse of YouTube. It says 2026 was the peak growth year and the build does not earn its cost of capital.

Google Network

Basis quarter$7.30B
Final quarter$4.26B
Implied CAGR−10%
Final revenue mix3%

Ads on partner sites and apps. $7,303M in the basis quarter, −0.7% year over year, the only shrinking advertising line. Kept separate so Search's +17% is not mixed with a partner-TAC decline.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7.35B Reported
2025 Q4 $7.83B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.97B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.30B Reported
AdSenseAdMobGoogle Ad Manager partner ads
Sequential growth −0.5%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% YoY −0.7% and a two-year fade. −0.5% QoQ keeps shrinking slowly, not a collapse.
Google Network

Latest: $4.26B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $7.26B
2025Q2 $7.35B
2025Q3 $7.35B
2025Q4 $7.83B
2026Q1 $6.97B
2026Q2 $7.30B
2026Q3E $7.08B
2026Q4E $6.88B
2027Q1E $6.68B
2027Q2E $6.50B
2027Q3E $6.32B
2027Q4E $6.14B
2028Q1E $5.98B
2028Q2E $5.82B
2028Q3E $5.67B
2028Q4E $5.52B
2029Q1E $5.38B
2029Q2E $5.24B
2029Q3E $5.10B
2029Q4E $4.97B
2030Q1E $4.85B
2030Q2E $4.72B
2030Q3E $4.60B
2030Q4E $4.49B
2031Q1E $4.37B
2031Q2E $4.26B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the line that would be hidden if advertising were one vertical. It has been flat-to-down for two years. Do not fold it into Search.
  • 44% EBITDA is the Services blend and likely generous because TAC is concentrated here. The alternative is inventing a TAC split Alphabet does not publish.
GOOGL model map

Explore another vertical