← GOOGL forward model

GOOGL · Forward model · Hedging · Bull case

What has to happen in Hedging

Model as of

This page changes Hedging inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $519.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $143M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $61M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search keeps compounding on AI-driven queries, Cloud mix stays at the 35%+ operating margin, and the capex-to-revenue ratio starts falling before 2028. What this case does NOT reach is the $514B backlog converting on a numbered path — that is the named case — and it does not assume Waymo is a material P&L.

Hedging

Basis quarter$106M
Final quarter$143M
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix0%

Foreign-exchange hedging gains and losses on revenue, not allocated to segments. $106M in the basis quarter after $(180)M in Q1. Required so the seven lines sum to $119,796M. Held flat at the last print with no economics.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 −$207M Reported
2025 Q4 −$68M Reported
2026 Q1 −$180M Reported
2026 Q2 $106M Reported
Revenue hedges
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% FX noise. Hold the last print. Do not trend a hedge gain.
Hedging

Latest: $143M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $260M
2025Q2 −$112M
2025Q3 −$207M
2025Q4 −$68M
2026Q1 −$180M
2026Q2 $106M
2026Q3E $108M
2026Q4E $109M
2027Q1E $111M
2027Q2E $113M
2027Q3E $114M
2027Q4E $116M
2028Q1E $118M
2028Q2E $119M
2028Q3E $121M
2028Q4E $123M
2029Q1E $125M
2029Q2E $127M
2029Q3E $129M
2029Q4E $131M
2030Q1E $133M
2030Q2E $135M
2030Q3E $137M
2030Q4E $139M
2031Q1E $141M
2031Q2E $143M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Included only so vertical totals match consolidated revenue. Folding $106M into Search would hide a disclosed line.
  • The projection holds $106M a quarter. Individual future quarters will not look like that. It does not matter to fair value.
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