← GOOGL forward model

GOOGL · Forward model · Hedging · Bear case

What has to happen in Hedging

Model as of

This page changes Hedging inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $113.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $64M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$103M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search AI substitutes for queries, Cloud utilisation misses the $514B backlog, and capex stays elevated into 2028. What this case does NOT assume is a Chrome divestiture or a collapse of YouTube. It says 2026 was the peak growth year and the build does not earn its cost of capital.

Hedging

Basis quarter$106M
Final quarter$64M
Implied CAGR−10%
Final revenue mix0%

Foreign-exchange hedging gains and losses on revenue, not allocated to segments. $106M in the basis quarter after $(180)M in Q1. Required so the seven lines sum to $119,796M. Held flat at the last print with no economics.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 −$207M Reported
2025 Q4 −$68M Reported
2026 Q1 −$180M Reported
2026 Q2 $106M Reported
Revenue hedges
Sequential growth 0.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% FX noise. Hold the last print. Do not trend a hedge gain.
Hedging

Latest: $64M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $260M
2025Q2 −$112M
2025Q3 −$207M
2025Q4 −$68M
2026Q1 −$180M
2026Q2 $106M
2026Q3E $103M
2026Q4E $101M
2027Q1E $98M
2027Q2E $96M
2027Q3E $93M
2027Q4E $91M
2028Q1E $89M
2028Q2E $87M
2028Q3E $84M
2028Q4E $82M
2029Q1E $80M
2029Q2E $78M
2029Q3E $76M
2029Q4E $74M
2030Q1E $73M
2030Q2E $71M
2030Q3E $69M
2030Q4E $67M
2031Q1E $66M
2031Q2E $64M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Included only so vertical totals match consolidated revenue. Folding $106M into Search would hide a disclosed line.
  • The projection holds $106M a quarter. Individual future quarters will not look like that. It does not matter to fair value.
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