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GOOGL · Forward model · Google Cloud · Bull case

What has to happen in Google Cloud

Model as of

This page changes Google Cloud inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $519.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $88.97B 31% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$244.92B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search keeps compounding on AI-driven queries, Cloud mix stays at the 35%+ operating margin, and the capex-to-revenue ratio starts falling before 2028. What this case does NOT reach is the $514B backlog converting on a numbered path — that is the named case — and it does not assume Waymo is a material P&L.

Google Cloud

Basis quarter$24.77B
Final quarter$88.97B
Implied CAGR+29%
Final revenue mix31%

GCP, Workspace and, from Q2 2026, TPU system sales. $24,768M in the basis quarter, +82%, sequential +24% from Q1 $20,028M. Operating income $8,814M, margin 35.6% vs 20.7% a year ago. Backlog ~$514B is contracted work, not live MW. No utilisation series, so sequential growth on the filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $15.16B Reported
2025 Q4 $17.66B Reported
2026 Q1 $20.03B Reported
2026 Q2 $24.77B Reported
Google Cloud Platform (AI infrastructure and solutions)Google WorkspaceOther enterprise cloud servicesTPU system sales
Sequential growth +10.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% Q2/Q1 was +24%. 10% QoQ is ~46% annual, half of +82% YoY, not a repeat of the TPU step.
Google Cloud

Latest: $88.97B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $12.26B
2025Q2 $13.62B
2025Q3 $15.16B
2025Q4 $17.66B
2026Q1 $20.03B
2026Q2 $24.77B
2026Q3E $27.65B
2026Q4E $30.58B
2027Q1E $33.54B
2027Q2E $36.51B
2027Q3E $39.51B
2027Q4E $42.52B
2028Q1E $45.55B
2028Q2E $48.59B
2028Q3E $51.66B
2028Q4E $54.76B
2029Q1E $57.89B
2029Q2E $61.07B
2029Q3E $64.29B
2029Q4E $67.58B
2030Q1E $70.93B
2030Q2E $74.36B
2030Q3E $77.86B
2030Q4E $81.46B
2031Q1E $85.16B
2031Q2E $88.97B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not use 24% sequential as the opening rate. That quarter includes first TPU system sales. 10% QoQ is already a very fast cloud.
  • Backlog ~$514B is call-only and is remaining performance obligation, not capacity in MW. It is the named case, not a capacity driver.
  • Cloud FCF is deeply negative at 50% EBITDA minus 140% capex. That is the point of the model, not a bug. 2027 capex is guided higher, so intensity glides slowly.
  • Segment operating income is disclosed at 35.6%. D&A by segment is not. The 50% EBITDA is assumed as operating income plus most of company D&A.
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