GOOGL · Forward model · Google Cloud
What has to happen in Google Cloud
Model as of
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Google Cloud
Basis quarter$24.77B
Final quarter$66.06B
Implied CAGR+22%
Final revenue mix31%
GCP, Workspace and, from Q2 2026, TPU system sales. $24,768M in the basis quarter, +82%, sequential +24% from Q1 $20,028M. Operating income $8,814M, margin 35.6% vs 20.7% a year ago. Backlog ~$514B is contracted work, not live MW. No utilisation series, so sequential growth on the filed total.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$15.16B
Reported
2025 Q4
$17.66B
Reported
2026 Q1
$20.03B
Reported
2026 Q2
$24.77B
Reported
Google Cloud Platform (AI infrastructure and solutions)Google WorkspaceOther enterprise cloud servicesTPU system sales
Sequential growth
+10.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.5%
Q2/Q1 was +24%. 10% QoQ is ~46% annual, half of +82% YoY, not a repeat of the TPU step.
Google Cloud
Latest: $66.06B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $12.26B |
| 2025Q2 | $13.62B |
| 2025Q3 | $15.16B |
| 2025Q4 | $17.66B |
| 2026Q1 | $20.03B |
| 2026Q2 | $24.77B |
| 2026Q3E | $27.24B |
| 2026Q4E | $29.68B |
| 2027Q1E | $32.07B |
| 2027Q2E | $34.40B |
| 2027Q3E | $36.68B |
| 2027Q4E | $38.89B |
| 2028Q1E | $41.04B |
| 2028Q2E | $43.13B |
| 2028Q3E | $45.18B |
| 2028Q4E | $47.18B |
| 2029Q1E | $49.15B |
| 2029Q2E | $51.08B |
| 2029Q3E | $52.98B |
| 2029Q4E | $54.86B |
| 2030Q1E | $56.73B |
| 2030Q2E | $58.59B |
| 2030Q3E | $60.45B |
| 2030Q4E | $62.31B |
| 2031Q1E | $64.18B |
| 2031Q2E | $66.06B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Do not use 24% sequential as the opening rate. That quarter includes first TPU system sales. 10% QoQ is already a very fast cloud.
- Backlog ~$514B is call-only and is remaining performance obligation, not capacity in MW. It is the named case, not a capacity driver.
- Cloud FCF is deeply negative at 50% EBITDA minus 140% capex. That is the point of the model, not a bug. 2027 capex is guided higher, so intensity glides slowly.
- Segment operating income is disclosed at 35.6%. D&A by segment is not. The 50% EBITDA is assumed as operating income plus most of company D&A.