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UPST · Forward model · Super prime personal (720+) · Bull case

What has to happen in Super prime personal (720+)

Model as of

This page changes Super prime personal (720+) inside the complete UPST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UPST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $67.81 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $241M 21% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.20B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Secured stops being a drag and starts being a business. The combined contribution margin has closed 141 points in four quarters and management has put breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the record; this case carries that slope past breakeven instead of flattening it there, and lets auto and home compound off bases that are still tiny. The three unsecured lines follow base exactly - no improvement in the take rate, no acceleration in Core. What this case does NOT assume is the bank charter: Upstart Bank is conditionally approved and targeted for early 2027, and nothing here reflects a lower funding cost, because Upstart has published no figure for what that would be worth.

Super prime personal (720+)

Basis quarter$91M
Final quarter$241M
Implied CAGR+22%
Final revenue mix21%

Personal loans to borrowers at 720 FICO and above: $1,013M of originations, 28% of unsecured volume, up 45% year over year and now roughly a third of the personal-loan book against 27% two quarters ago. This is the volume-and-brand line - Upstart competing for borrowers a traditional lender would also want, at a lower fee. It is growing faster than Core, and because it earns less per dollar, a rising share of it dilutes the unsecured margin. That is the tension management keeps addressing by pointing at Core re-acceleration.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $63M Estimated
2025 Q4 $70M Estimated
2026 Q1 $87M Estimated
2026 Q2 $91M Estimated
Personal loans to borrowers at 720 FICO and above
Units 1013/qtr growing +5.0% per quarter $1,013M of originations in the basis quarter, from page 14 of the Q2 2026 investor presentation.
Price per unit $89668 drifting 0.0% per quarter $89,668 of fee per $M originated - 8.97% - the Unsecured Lending take rate, applied to all its lines alike.
Super prime personal (720+)

Latest: $241M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $53M
2025Q2 $63M
2025Q3 $63M
2025Q4 $70M
2026Q1 $87M
2026Q2 $91M
2026Q3E $95M
2026Q4E $100M
2027Q1E $105M
2027Q2E $110M
2027Q3E $116M
2027Q4E $122M
2028Q1E $128M
2028Q2E $134M
2028Q3E $141M
2028Q4E $148M
2029Q1E $155M
2029Q2E $163M
2029Q3E $171M
2029Q4E $180M
2030Q1E $189M
2030Q2E $198M
2030Q3E $208M
2030Q4E $219M
2031Q1E $230M
2031Q2E $241M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Upstart states this line carries a lower take rate than Core but publishes no revenue for it, so the pro-rata apportionment here gives it the same fee per dollar as Core and puts the whole difference in the contribution margin, which is set 15 points below Core's.
  • Share of unsecured originations has gone 29%, 26%, 25%, 27%, 33%, 28% across the six quarters. It is rising over the period but not monotonically, and the basis quarter was a step back toward Core.
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