UPST · Forward model · Super prime personal (720+)
What has to happen in Super prime personal (720+)
Model as of
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Super prime personal (720+)
Personal loans to borrowers at 720 FICO and above: $1,013M of originations, 28% of unsecured volume, up 45% year over year and now roughly a third of the personal-loan book against 27% two quarters ago. This is the volume-and-brand line - Upstart competing for borrowers a traditional lender would also want, at a lower fee. It is growing faster than Core, and because it earns less per dollar, a rising share of it dilutes the unsecured margin. That is the tension management keeps addressing by pointing at Core re-acceleration.
Latest: $241M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $53M |
| 2025Q2 | $63M |
| 2025Q3 | $63M |
| 2025Q4 | $70M |
| 2026Q1 | $87M |
| 2026Q2 | $91M |
| 2026Q3E | $95M |
| 2026Q4E | $100M |
| 2027Q1E | $105M |
| 2027Q2E | $110M |
| 2027Q3E | $116M |
| 2027Q4E | $122M |
| 2028Q1E | $128M |
| 2028Q2E | $134M |
| 2028Q3E | $141M |
| 2028Q4E | $148M |
| 2029Q1E | $155M |
| 2029Q2E | $163M |
| 2029Q3E | $171M |
| 2029Q4E | $180M |
| 2030Q1E | $189M |
| 2030Q2E | $198M |
| 2030Q3E | $208M |
| 2030Q4E | $219M |
| 2031Q1E | $230M |
| 2031Q2E | $241M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Upstart states this line carries a lower take rate than Core but publishes no revenue for it, so the pro-rata apportionment here gives it the same fee per dollar as Core and puts the whole difference in the contribution margin, which is set 15 points below Core's.
- Share of unsecured originations has gone 29%, 26%, 25%, 27%, 33%, 28% across the six quarters. It is rising over the period but not monotonically, and the basis quarter was a step back toward Core.