UPST · Forward model · Auto · Bull case
What has to happen in Auto
Model as of
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Auto
The fastest-growing line Upstart has: $426M of originations, up roughly four times year over year and 62% sequentially, on 20,023 loans against 5,058 a year ago. Auto retail and auto-secured personal loans, after auto refinance was sunset during the quarter. Still loss-making on contribution, but the secured margin it dominates has closed 141 points in four quarters and management has put breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the record. This is the line the bull case is actually about: a much larger market than personal loans, addressed with the same underwriting stack.
Latest: $196M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2M |
| 2025Q2 | $2M |
| 2025Q3 | $3M |
| 2025Q4 | $5M |
| 2026Q1 | $8M |
| 2026Q2 | $16M |
| 2026Q3E | $18M |
| 2026Q4E | $21M |
| 2027Q1E | $24M |
| 2027Q2E | $28M |
| 2027Q3E | $33M |
| 2027Q4E | $38M |
| 2028Q1E | $43M |
| 2028Q2E | $50M |
| 2028Q3E | $58M |
| 2028Q4E | $66M |
| 2029Q1E | $76M |
| 2029Q2E | $88M |
| 2029Q3E | $101M |
| 2029Q4E | $116M |
| 2030Q1E | $134M |
| 2030Q2E | $154M |
| 2030Q3E | $177M |
| 2030Q4E | $186M |
| 2031Q1E | $191M |
| 2031Q2E | $196M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Auto refinance originations were sunset during the basis quarter, so this line grew roughly fourfold while losing one of its three products. The remaining growth is retail and auto-secured personal.
- Revenue is the Secured fee total apportioned on the auto and home origination mix from page 15 of the deck. Upstart publishes contribution for auto and home together, never apart, so the margin split between them is assumed and only their weighted average is disclosed.
- Auto is given the better of the two secured margins because it has the scale - 20,023 loans against 2,800 - and because the deck shows it further along its cost curve. That is a judgement, not a disclosure.