UPST · Forward model · Home · Bull case
What has to happen in Home
Model as of
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Home
Home equity lines of credit: $163M of committed amounts in the basis quarter, roughly double a year ago, on 2,800 loans. The smallest and least mature of the five product lines, and the deepest under water on contribution. Tickets are large - a HELOC commitment averages about $58,000 against roughly $21,000 for an auto loan - so a handful of loans move the line, and origination is a committed amount rather than a drawn balance. It is the second half of the secured optionality and it is behind auto on every dimension except ticket size.
Latest: $50M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $1M |
| 2025Q2 | $1M |
| 2025Q3 | $2M |
| 2025Q4 | $3M |
| 2026Q1 | $4M |
| 2026Q2 | $6M |
| 2026Q3E | $7M |
| 2026Q4E | $8M |
| 2027Q1E | $8M |
| 2027Q2E | $9M |
| 2027Q3E | $10M |
| 2027Q4E | $12M |
| 2028Q1E | $13M |
| 2028Q2E | $14M |
| 2028Q3E | $16M |
| 2028Q4E | $18M |
| 2029Q1E | $20M |
| 2029Q2E | $22M |
| 2029Q3E | $24M |
| 2029Q4E | $27M |
| 2030Q1E | $30M |
| 2030Q2E | $33M |
| 2030Q3E | $36M |
| 2030Q4E | $40M |
| 2031Q1E | $45M |
| 2031Q2E | $50M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Originations here are COMMITTED amounts for HELOCs, not drawn balances - Upstart says so in its definition of Originations, Dollars. A committed dollar and a drawn dollar are not the same economics, and the fee per committed dollar is what this line actually earns.
- Its contribution margin is solved rather than chosen: given auto at -25%, home takes whatever value makes the two weight-average back to the -35.2% Upstart discloses for secured as a whole. It is deeply negative because auto is most of the revenue and the pair average is what is known.
- At under 2% of consolidated revenue this line cannot change the answer, but it is the one with the largest addressable market behind it, which is why it is carried separately rather than folded into auto.