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UPST · Forward model · Super prime personal (720+) · Gu case

What has to happen in Super prime personal (720+)

Model as of

This page changes Super prime personal (720+) inside the complete UPST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UPST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $120.42 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $325M 20% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.46B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Paul Gu's version, taken literally: the technology advantage compounds, secured turns profitable, and a national bank charter lets Upstart originate and fund on its own rails - all of it paid for without issuing equity. Every line is lifted, because a compounding platform advantage is a claim about the platform rather than about one product. Read the charter carefully before pricing it. What Upstart has is CONDITIONAL approval from one of three regulators: FDIC deposit insurance is still pending, the Federal Reserve has not approved the holding company, and the 10-Q says in terms that the applications may be denied or delayed. Management targets early 2027, has published no figure for what deposit funding would be worth, and none of it is in the 2026 guide. So the benefit appears here as a margin delta and a higher exit multiple, which is an assumption wearing the costume of a mechanism.

Super prime personal (720+)

Basis quarter$91M
Final quarter$325M
Implied CAGR+29%
Final revenue mix20%

Personal loans to borrowers at 720 FICO and above: $1,013M of originations, 28% of unsecured volume, up 45% year over year and now roughly a third of the personal-loan book against 27% two quarters ago. This is the volume-and-brand line - Upstart competing for borrowers a traditional lender would also want, at a lower fee. It is growing faster than Core, and because it earns less per dollar, a rising share of it dilutes the unsecured margin. That is the tension management keeps addressing by pointing at Core re-acceleration.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $63M Estimated
2025 Q4 $70M Estimated
2026 Q1 $87M Estimated
2026 Q2 $91M Estimated
Personal loans to borrowers at 720 FICO and above
Units 1013/qtr growing +5.0% per quarter $1,013M of originations in the basis quarter, from page 14 of the Q2 2026 investor presentation.
Price per unit $89668 drifting 0.0% per quarter $89,668 of fee per $M originated - 8.97% - the Unsecured Lending take rate, applied to all its lines alike.
Super prime personal (720+)

Latest: $325M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $53M
2025Q2 $63M
2025Q3 $63M
2025Q4 $70M
2026Q1 $87M
2026Q2 $91M
2026Q3E $97M
2026Q4E $103M
2027Q1E $110M
2027Q2E $117M
2027Q3E $125M
2027Q4E $133M
2028Q1E $142M
2028Q2E $151M
2028Q3E $161M
2028Q4E $172M
2029Q1E $183M
2029Q2E $195M
2029Q3E $208M
2029Q4E $222M
2030Q1E $236M
2030Q2E $252M
2030Q3E $268M
2030Q4E $286M
2031Q1E $305M
2031Q2E $325M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Upstart states this line carries a lower take rate than Core but publishes no revenue for it, so the pro-rata apportionment here gives it the same fee per dollar as Core and puts the whole difference in the contribution margin, which is set 15 points below Core's.
  • Share of unsecured originations has gone 29%, 26%, 25%, 27%, 33%, 28% across the six quarters. It is rising over the period but not monotonically, and the basis quarter was a step back toward Core.
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