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UPST · Forward model · Super prime personal (720+) · Bear case

What has to happen in Super prime personal (720+)

Model as of

This page changes Super prime personal (720+) inside the complete UPST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UPST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $11.10 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $145M 23% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $853M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Upstart beat and did not raise. That is the whole case. Management's own macro index sat at 1.50, the top of the 1.40-1.50 band the full-year guide assumes, and had risen in each of the previous three months - so the reiterated guide says credit is getting worse at the same rate the business is getting better. This case decelerates originations across all five product lines, gives back the contribution recovery Core just made, and prices what Upstart is if the marketplace is a fee business with a credit cycle attached: a fixed cost base of 53% of revenue that does not move when volume does.

Super prime personal (720+)

Basis quarter$91M
Final quarter$145M
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix23%

Personal loans to borrowers at 720 FICO and above: $1,013M of originations, 28% of unsecured volume, up 45% year over year and now roughly a third of the personal-loan book against 27% two quarters ago. This is the volume-and-brand line - Upstart competing for borrowers a traditional lender would also want, at a lower fee. It is growing faster than Core, and because it earns less per dollar, a rising share of it dilutes the unsecured margin. That is the tension management keeps addressing by pointing at Core re-acceleration.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $63M Estimated
2025 Q4 $70M Estimated
2026 Q1 $87M Estimated
2026 Q2 $91M Estimated
Personal loans to borrowers at 720 FICO and above
Units 1013/qtr growing +5.0% per quarter $1,013M of originations in the basis quarter, from page 14 of the Q2 2026 investor presentation.
Price per unit $89668 drifting 0.0% per quarter $89,668 of fee per $M originated - 8.97% - the Unsecured Lending take rate, applied to all its lines alike.
Super prime personal (720+)

Latest: $145M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $53M
2025Q2 $63M
2025Q3 $63M
2025Q4 $70M
2026Q1 $87M
2026Q2 $91M
2026Q3E $93M
2026Q4E $95M
2027Q1E $97M
2027Q2E $100M
2027Q3E $102M
2027Q4E $105M
2028Q1E $107M
2028Q2E $110M
2028Q3E $112M
2028Q4E $115M
2029Q1E $118M
2029Q2E $120M
2029Q3E $123M
2029Q4E $126M
2030Q1E $129M
2030Q2E $132M
2030Q3E $135M
2030Q4E $139M
2031Q1E $142M
2031Q2E $145M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Upstart states this line carries a lower take rate than Core but publishes no revenue for it, so the pro-rata apportionment here gives it the same fee per dollar as Core and puts the whole difference in the contribution margin, which is set 15 points below Core's.
  • Share of unsecured originations has gone 29%, 26%, 25%, 27%, 33%, 28% across the six quarters. It is rising over the period but not monotonically, and the basis quarter was a step back toward Core.
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