UPST · Forward model · Balance-sheet lending · Bull case
What has to happen in Balance-sheet lending
Model as of
This page changes Balance-sheet lending inside the complete UPST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Balance-sheet lending
Not a product Upstart sells - the line that makes its GAAP results jump around. Interest income on the roughly $1.06B of loans it holds at fair value, less interest expense on the $2.0B of borrowings that fund them, plus the mark-to-market on both. It contributed $16.7M in the basis quarter and $31.2M the quarter before, with no cost allocated against it, so it drops almost entirely to operating income. The book is more secured than the fee mix suggests: $338.1M of auto loans and $229.0M of HELOCs, held to seed products Upstart cannot yet sell in volume.
Latest: $29M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $28M |
| 2025Q2 | $17M |
| 2025Q3 | $19M |
| 2025Q4 | $31M |
| 2026Q1 | $31M |
| 2026Q2 | $17M |
| 2026Q3E | $17M |
| 2026Q4E | $18M |
| 2027Q1E | $19M |
| 2027Q2E | $19M |
| 2027Q3E | $20M |
| 2027Q4E | $20M |
| 2028Q1E | $21M |
| 2028Q2E | $22M |
| 2028Q3E | $22M |
| 2028Q4E | $23M |
| 2029Q1E | $24M |
| 2029Q2E | $24M |
| 2029Q3E | $25M |
| 2029Q4E | $25M |
| 2030Q1E | $26M |
| 2030Q2E | $27M |
| 2030Q3E | $27M |
| 2030Q4E | $28M |
| 2031Q1E | $29M |
| 2031Q2E | $29M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This line exists so the six verticals sum to Upstart's reported total revenue. The five product lines are fee revenue only; total revenue also carries net interest and mark-to-market, and that is what sits here.
- It ranged from $16.5M to $31.2M across the six quarters shown with no trend, and went negative as recently as 2024 Q3. Modelling it as a steady yield on a slowly growing book understates how much of it is remeasurement rather than carry.
- The $2.0B of borrowings that fund the book are treated as a claim on equity in the valuation, not as an operating cost here, which is why net cash is negative $1.55B rather than the cash balance alone.
- If the intention is to read this as a pure fee-platform valuation, this is the line to zero out. It is 5% of revenue and the only part of the projection that is not a fee.