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UPST · Forward model · Small dollar and Cash Line · Bear case

What has to happen in Small dollar and Cash Line

Model as of

This page changes Small dollar and Cash Line inside the complete UPST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UPST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $11.10 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $10M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $90M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Upstart beat and did not raise. That is the whole case. Management's own macro index sat at 1.50, the top of the 1.40-1.50 band the full-year guide assumes, and had risen in each of the previous three months - so the reiterated guide says credit is getting worse at the same rate the business is getting better. This case decelerates originations across all five product lines, gives back the contribution recovery Core just made, and prices what Upstart is if the marketplace is a fee business with a credit cycle attached: a fixed cost base of 53% of revenue that does not move when volume does.

Small dollar and Cash Line

Basis quarter$12M
Final quarter$10M
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix2%

The funnel: small-dollar loans and Cash Line, Upstart's unsecured revolving product. $130M of originations, under 4% of unsecured volume, and the most erratic line on the page - it has gone 79, 111, 138, 111, 76, 130 across six quarters with no trend. Its job is acquisition rather than profit: a borrower who arrives for a few hundred dollars can be sold a personal loan later. Upstart excludes Cash Line from its automation and conversion metrics because repeat draws are not new decisions.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $13M Estimated
2025 Q4 $10M Estimated
2026 Q1 $7M Estimated
2026 Q2 $12M Estimated
Small dollar loansCash Line unsecured revolving credit
Units 130/qtr growing +2.0% per quarter $130M of originations in the basis quarter, from page 14 of the Q2 2026 investor presentation.
Price per unit $89668 drifting 0.0% per quarter $89,668 of fee per $M originated - 8.97% - the Unsecured Lending take rate, applied to all its lines alike.
Small dollar and Cash Line

Latest: $10M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $7M
2025Q2 $10M
2025Q3 $13M
2025Q4 $10M
2026Q1 $7M
2026Q2 $12M
2026Q3E $12M
2026Q4E $12M
2027Q1E $11M
2027Q2E $11M
2027Q3E $11M
2027Q4E $11M
2028Q1E $11M
2028Q2E $11M
2028Q3E $11M
2028Q4E $11M
2029Q1E $11M
2029Q2E $11M
2029Q3E $11M
2029Q4E $11M
2030Q1E $11M
2030Q2E $11M
2030Q3E $11M
2030Q4E $11M
2031Q1E $10M
2031Q2E $10M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The smallest line in the model at under 4% of unsecured originations and about 3% of consolidated revenue, and the one whose projection matters least - a 50% error here moves fair value by less than a tenth of a dollar.
  • Its contribution margin is not chosen, it is solved: given Core at 66% and super prime at 51%, this line takes whatever value makes the three weight-average back to the 61.53% Upstart discloses for Unsecured Lending as a whole.
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