UPST · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-24

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Upstart has ONE reportable segment, Unsecured Lending. The five product lines here are NOT reported: their REVENUE is apportioned, and that is the single most important thing to know about this page. What IS published, quarterly and for six quarters, is the ORIGINATIONS mix - pages 14 and 15 of the Q2 2026 investor presentation break unsecured originations into Core (FICO under 720), super prime (720+) and small dollar plus Cash Line, and secured into auto and home, in dollars, with the loan counts beside them. Those six quarters of published mix reconcile to the originations Upstart files in its 10-Q to within $1M in every quarter, which is what makes them usable. Each group's fee revenue - Unsecured Lending's disclosed figure, and secured's as the residual of consolidated fees less Unsecured - is then apportioned across its lines in proportion to that published mix. The apportionment assumes every line inside a group earns the same fee per dollar originated, and Upstart says that is NOT true: super prime carries a lower take rate than Core. The pro-rata split therefore understates Core's revenue and overstates super prime's, and the contribution margins carry that difference instead. CONTRIBUTION is disclosed for two groups only - 61.53% for Unsecured Lending and negative 35.16% for secured - so the five line margins are chosen to weight-average back to exactly those two figures. Core at 66% and super prime at 51% are judgements; small dollar's 57.7% and home's negative 61.7% are then solved rather than chosen, because only the group averages are known. The sixth vertical, balance-sheet lending, is the disclosed interest and fair-value line and is carried so the six sum to reported total revenue. History runs six quarters rather than eight because the published mix starts at 2025 Q1; extending it would mean inventing the split for two more quarters. Also assumed: the whole cost structure below contribution, since engineering, general and administrative and the non-variable part of sales and marketing are unallocated by design and sit here as a single percentage of revenue. One caveat for the cash-flow column: this model's free cash flow is EBITDA less capex less tax, while Upstart's reported free cash flow on the site's own definition was negative $138.7M in the basis quarter, because purchases and originations of loans held-for-sale run through operating activities.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.