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UPST · Forward model · Auto · Bear case

What has to happen in Auto

Model as of

This page changes Auto inside the complete UPST model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UPST forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $11.10 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $79M 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $134M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Upstart beat and did not raise. That is the whole case. Management's own macro index sat at 1.50, the top of the 1.40-1.50 band the full-year guide assumes, and had risen in each of the previous three months - so the reiterated guide says credit is getting worse at the same rate the business is getting better. This case decelerates originations across all five product lines, gives back the contribution recovery Core just made, and prices what Upstart is if the marketplace is a fee business with a credit cycle attached: a fixed cost base of 53% of revenue that does not move when volume does.

Auto

Basis quarter$16M
Final quarter$79M
Implied CAGR+38%
Final revenue mix13%

The fastest-growing line Upstart has: $426M of originations, up roughly four times year over year and 62% sequentially, on 20,023 loans against 5,058 a year ago. Auto retail and auto-secured personal loans, after auto refinance was sunset during the quarter. Still loss-making on contribution, but the secured margin it dominates has closed 141 points in four quarters and management has put breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2026 on the record. This is the line the bull case is actually about: a much larger market than personal loans, addressed with the same underwriting stack.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3M Estimated
2025 Q4 $5M Estimated
2026 Q1 $8M Estimated
2026 Q2 $16M Estimated
Auto retail loansAuto-secured personal loansAuto refinance (sunset during Q2 2026)
Units 426/qtr growing +12.0% per quarter $426M of originations in the basis quarter, from page 15 of the Q2 2026 investor presentation.
Price per unit $36873 drifting +1.5% per quarter $36,873 of fee per $M originated - 3.69% - the Secured (auto and home) take rate, applied to all its lines alike.
Auto

Latest: $79M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2M
2025Q2 $2M
2025Q3 $3M
2025Q4 $5M
2026Q1 $8M
2026Q2 $16M
2026Q3E $17M
2026Q4E $19M
2027Q1E $21M
2027Q2E $24M
2027Q3E $26M
2027Q4E $29M
2028Q1E $32M
2028Q2E $35M
2028Q3E $38M
2028Q4E $42M
2029Q1E $47M
2029Q2E $51M
2029Q3E $56M
2029Q4E $62M
2030Q1E $68M
2030Q2E $75M
2030Q3E $82M
2030Q4E $83M
2031Q1E $81M
2031Q2E $79M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Auto refinance originations were sunset during the basis quarter, so this line grew roughly fourfold while losing one of its three products. The remaining growth is retail and auto-secured personal.
  • Revenue is the Secured fee total apportioned on the auto and home origination mix from page 15 of the deck. Upstart publishes contribution for auto and home together, never apart, so the margin split between them is assumed and only their weighted average is disclosed.
  • Auto is given the better of the two secured margins because it has the scale - 20,023 loans against 2,800 - and because the deck shows it further along its cost curve. That is a judgement, not a disclosure.
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