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TSLA · Forward model · Services & Other · Bear case

What has to happen in Services & Other

Model as of

This page changes Services & Other inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $66.29 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.54B 18% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $2.31B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Vehicle demand stalls against a cheaper Chinese field, FSD approvals slip country by country, Robotaxi stays confined to a handful of metros, and Optimus does not sell externally inside the horizon. Storage keeps working.

Services & Other

Basis quarter$4.58B
Final quarter$4.54B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix18%

Supercharging, used vehicles, insurance, parts and merchandise. Not one of the strategic verticals, but real revenue that the other seven do not account for.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.48B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.37B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.75B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.58B Reported
Supercharging networkUsed vehicle salesInsuranceParts and service
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% 3.5% a quarter, tracking the growing fleet that generates the service, charging and used-car volume.
Services & Other

Latest: $4.54B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $3.05B
2025Q3 $3.48B
2025Q4 $3.37B
2026Q1 $3.75B
2026Q2 $4.58B
2026Q3E $4.62B
2026Q4E $4.66B
2027Q1E $4.69B
2027Q2E $4.71B
2027Q3E $4.73B
2027Q4E $4.74B
2028Q1E $4.74B
2028Q2E $4.75B
2028Q3E $4.75B
2028Q4E $4.74B
2029Q1E $4.73B
2029Q2E $4.72B
2029Q3E $4.70B
2029Q4E $4.69B
2030Q1E $4.67B
2030Q2E $4.64B
2030Q3E $4.62B
2030Q4E $4.59B
2031Q1E $4.56B
2031Q2E $4.54B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This vertical is not in the strategic list — it is here because without it the other seven do not sum to Tesla's reported revenue, and a model whose segments do not reconcile to the consolidated total is not checkable.
  • It scales with the installed fleet rather than with sales, so it is the most predictable line in the model and the least interesting.
  • Margin is thin by design: charging and service are run near cost to support the vehicle business, and used-vehicle margin moves with residual values.
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