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What has to happen in Tesla Semi

Model as of

This page changes Tesla Semi inside the complete TSLA model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

TSLA forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $826.91 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.85B 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$177M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Unsupervised FSD is broadly approved, Robotaxi utilisation reaches mature-network levels, the next-gen platform lands on time in Mexico, and Optimus finds external demand faster than the base case assumes.

Related research
News · Tesla's Largest Semi Order Is 500 Trucks. Nevada Could Build That in Four Days. Einride's 500 trucks are the largest Semi order, and the public book is roughly 1,500 — against a factory guided to thousands this year, 50,000 at nameplate.

Tesla Semi

Basis quarter$90M
Final quarter$2.85B
Implied CAGR+100%
Final revenue mix3%

Class 8 electric trucking out of the Nevada line. Higher ASP than cars and a real order book, but still a secondary volume story inside the horizon.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $9M Estimated
2025 Q4 $13M Estimated
2026 Q1 $18M Estimated
2026 Q2 $90M Estimated
Class 8 tractorFleet service contractsMegacharger corridor
Units 500/qtr growing +30.0% per quarter 500 units in the basis quarter — the Nevada line's first deliveries, not the pilot fleet that preceded it.
Price per unit $180000 drifting −0.8% per quarter $180k a unit. Higher than a car by a wide margin, which is why modest volume still shows up.
Tesla Semi

Latest: $2.85B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q2 $6M
2025Q3 $9M
2025Q4 $13M
2026Q1 $18M
2026Q2 $90M
2026Q3E $118M
2026Q4E $156M
2027Q1E $205M
2027Q2E $269M
2027Q3E $354M
2027Q4E $466M
2028Q1E $613M
2028Q2E $807M
2028Q3E $1.06B
2028Q4E $1.40B
2029Q1E $1.84B
2029Q2E $2.41B
2029Q3E $2.62B
2029Q4E $2.65B
2030Q1E $2.68B
2030Q2E $2.72B
2030Q3E $2.75B
2030Q4E $2.78B
2031Q1E $2.81B
2031Q2E $2.85B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Semi revenue is NOT disclosed by Tesla — this line is apportioned like every other, and the unit count is derived from it at a $180k average. Deliveries before 2026 were a pilot fleet in the tens per quarter (PepsiCo and similar), so 2025 here is deliberately near zero; the Nevada high-volume line is what starts the ramp.
  • Margin starts negative. A ramping line carries fixed cost against low volume, and Tesla has never claimed Semi is profitable at current output.
  • Volume compounds at 18% until it reaches the Nevada line's stated ~50k a year and then holds there. Left unbounded the same rate reached three times the line's design capacity over five years, which is not a view about demand — it is a modelling error. Raise the ceiling if you think a second line gets built.
  • Autonomy is not modelled here. Driver-out trucking would change the economics of this line more than any volume assumption, and it is not in the numbers.
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