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What has to happen in Fabric & Home Care

Model as of

This page changes Fabric & Home Care inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $168.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $9.04B 35% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $31.26B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The reinvestment works and the multiple holds. P&G put 410 basis points of the June quarter into product and brand reinvestment, funded by $2.8bn before tax of productivity, and management's stated planning assumption is category growth around 2% with markets growing 1% to 3% in local-currency value. If P&G holds share in a market growing at that rate and the 30 to 50 basis point discontinuation headwind laps, the guided range is reachable without heroics. This case adds 0.70pp a quarter to every line and exits at 17x, roughly the 2021-22 staples peak. Fiscal 2027 net sales reach $88.97bn, +2.22%, inside the +1% to +3% guidance and above its midpoint, and fair value is $168.38 - within a dollar and a half of RBC's target. What this case does NOT do is reach the +3% top of guidance: that would need about 1.0pp a quarter, which compounds to $111bn of net sales by fiscal 2031, a 5.0% annual rate no P&G disclosure supports over five years.

Fabric & Home Care

Basis quarter$7.43B
Final quarter$9.04B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix35%

Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain, Swiffer. The largest segment - 35% of net sales - and the anchor of the whole model.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7.79B Reported
2025 Q4 $7.69B Reported
2026 Q1 $7.40B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.43B Reported
Fabric Care (Fabric Enhancers, Laundry Additives, Laundry Detergents)Home Care (Air Care, Dish Care, P&G Professional, Surface Care)
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% 0.28%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised sales. At 35% of the company this rate sets the answer.
Fabric & Home Care

Latest: $9.04B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $7.01B
2021Q4 $6.97B
2022Q1 $6.70B
2022Q2 $6.88B
2022Q3 $7.08B
2022Q4 $7.03B
2023Q1 $7.02B
2023Q2 $7.24B
2023Q3 $7.65B
2023Q4 $7.42B
2024Q1 $7.17B
2024Q2 $7.26B
2024Q3 $7.71B
2024Q4 $7.58B
2025Q1 $6.95B
2025Q2 $7.38B
2025Q3 $7.79B
2025Q4 $7.69B
2026Q1 $7.40B
2026Q2 $7.43B
2026Q3E $7.84B
2026Q4E $7.74B
2027Q1E $7.45B
2027Q2E $7.73B
2027Q3E $8.15B
2027Q4E $8.05B
2028Q1E $7.75B
2028Q2E $8.04B
2028Q3E $8.48B
2028Q4E $8.37B
2029Q1E $8.06B
2029Q2E $8.36B
2029Q3E $8.82B
2029Q4E $8.70B
2030Q1E $8.39B
2030Q2E $8.70B
2030Q3E $9.17B
2030Q4E $9.05B
2031Q1E $8.72B
2031Q2E $9.04B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain and Swiffer are brands inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
  • The 26.54% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $7,290m + depreciation and amortisation $756m) / net sales $30,314m. At 35% of company net sales this vertical sets the consolidated growth rate, and its 0.28%/quarter deseasonalised trend is the binding constraint on the whole base case.
  • The seasonal shape here is real but small - a 7.0-point amplitude against a 2.1-point window-to-window spread, worth about plus or minus 3.5% around trend. July-September is above trend in all five years and January-March below it in four of five. The January 2026 Glad joint-venture dissolution removed a Home Care revenue stream; its $261m after-tax gain sits in Corporate, not here.
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