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PG · Forward model · Health Care · Bull case

What has to happen in Health Care

Model as of

This page changes Health Care inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $168.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.42B 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $13.89B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The reinvestment works and the multiple holds. P&G put 410 basis points of the June quarter into product and brand reinvestment, funded by $2.8bn before tax of productivity, and management's stated planning assumption is category growth around 2% with markets growing 1% to 3% in local-currency value. If P&G holds share in a market growing at that rate and the 30 to 50 basis point discontinuation headwind laps, the guided range is reachable without heroics. This case adds 0.70pp a quarter to every line and exits at 17x, roughly the 2021-22 staples peak. Fiscal 2027 net sales reach $88.97bn, +2.22%, inside the +1% to +3% guidance and above its midpoint, and fair value is $168.38 - within a dollar and a half of RBC's target. What this case does NOT do is reach the +3% top of guidance: that would need about 1.0pp a quarter, which compounds to $111bn of net sales by fiscal 2031, a 5.0% annual rate no P&G disclosure supports over five years.

Health Care

Basis quarter$2.76B
Final quarter$3.42B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix13%

Oral Care (Crest, Oral-B) and Personal Health Care (Vicks, Metamucil, Pepto-Bismol). The most seasonal line in the company.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.22B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.41B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.07B Reported
2026 Q2 $2.76B Reported
Oral Care (Toothbrushes, Toothpastes, Other Oral Care)Personal Health Care (Gastrointestinal, Pain Relief, Rapid Diagnostics, Respiratory, Vitamins/Minerals/Supplements)
Sequential growth +0.4%/qtr decaying toward +0.4% 0.38%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised Health Care net sales, after removing the flu shape.
Health Care

Latest: $3.42B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $2.68B
2021Q4 $2.98B
2022Q1 $2.66B
2022Q2 $2.51B
2022Q3 $2.76B
2022Q4 $3.05B
2023Q1 $2.83B
2023Q2 $2.59B
2023Q3 $3.07B
2023Q4 $3.17B
2024Q1 $2.87B
2024Q2 $2.67B
2024Q3 $3.15B
2024Q4 $3.25B
2025Q1 $2.88B
2025Q2 $2.72B
2025Q3 $3.22B
2025Q4 $3.41B
2026Q1 $3.07B
2026Q2 $2.76B
2026Q3E $3.21B
2026Q4E $3.40B
2027Q1E $3.08B
2027Q2E $2.88B
2027Q3E $3.35B
2027Q4E $3.55B
2028Q1E $3.22B
2028Q2E $3.01B
2028Q3E $3.50B
2028Q4E $3.71B
2029Q1E $3.36B
2029Q2E $3.14B
2029Q3E $3.65B
2029Q4E $3.87B
2030Q1E $3.51B
2030Q2E $3.28B
2030Q3E $3.81B
2030Q4E $4.04B
2031Q1E $3.66B
2031Q2E $3.42B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. No dollar split between Oral Care and Personal Health Care is disclosed and none is manufactured.
  • The four seasonal factors are the largest and most economically legible shape in the company: October-December peaks at 1.087 and April-June troughs at 0.901, which is the cold, flu and respiratory season in Personal Health Care. The 10-K names Personal Health Care as a seasonal component while saying no reportable segment is highly seasonal, and both statements are consistent with an 18.7-point amplitude on a 2.5-point window-to-window spread.
  • The 28.92% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $3,163m + depreciation and amortisation $439m) / net sales $12,456m. Health Care organic sales fell 1% in the June quarter, with Oral Care down mid single digits on volume declines in North America and Greater China.
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