← PG forward model

PG · Forward model · Grooming · Bull case

What has to happen in Grooming

Model as of

This page changes Grooming inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $168.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.08B 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.98B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The reinvestment works and the multiple holds. P&G put 410 basis points of the June quarter into product and brand reinvestment, funded by $2.8bn before tax of productivity, and management's stated planning assumption is category growth around 2% with markets growing 1% to 3% in local-currency value. If P&G holds share in a market growing at that rate and the 30 to 50 basis point discontinuation headwind laps, the guided range is reachable without heroics. This case adds 0.70pp a quarter to every line and exits at 17x, roughly the 2021-22 staples peak. Fiscal 2027 net sales reach $88.97bn, +2.22%, inside the +1% to +3% guidance and above its midpoint, and fair value is $168.38 - within a dollar and a half of RBC's target. What this case does NOT do is reach the +3% top of guidance: that would need about 1.0pp a quarter, which compounds to $111bn of net sales by fiscal 2031, a 5.0% annual rate no P&G disclosure supports over five years.

Grooming

Basis quarter$1.70B
Final quarter$2.08B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix8%

Blades, razors and appliances under Gillette, Venus and Braun. The highest-margin segment at 33.0% EBITDA and the smallest by revenue.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.82B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.79B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.61B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.70B Reported
Grooming (Appliances, Female Blades & Razors, Male Blades & Razors, Pre- and Post-Shave Products, Other Grooming)
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% 0.31%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised Grooming net sales - price and currency, not volume.
Grooming

Latest: $2.08B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $1.69B
2021Q4 $1.81B
2022Q1 $1.48B
2022Q2 $1.61B
2022Q3 $1.62B
2022Q4 $1.64B
2023Q1 $1.50B
2023Q2 $1.66B
2023Q3 $1.72B
2023Q4 $1.73B
2024Q1 $1.54B
2024Q2 $1.66B
2024Q3 $1.72B
2024Q4 $1.75B
2025Q1 $1.50B
2025Q2 $1.68B
2025Q3 $1.82B
2025Q4 $1.79B
2026Q1 $1.61B
2026Q2 $1.70B
2026Q3E $1.79B
2026Q4E $1.81B
2027Q1E $1.60B
2027Q2E $1.77B
2027Q3E $1.86B
2027Q4E $1.88B
2028Q1E $1.67B
2028Q2E $1.84B
2028Q3E $1.94B
2028Q4E $1.96B
2029Q1E $1.73B
2029Q2E $1.92B
2029Q3E $2.02B
2029Q4E $2.04B
2030Q1E $1.81B
2030Q2E $2.00B
2030Q3E $2.10B
2030Q4E $2.12B
2031Q1E $1.88B
2031Q2E $2.08B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Gillette, Venus and Braun are named brands within one reportable segment, and P&G reports no dollar split between them.
  • The 33.04% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $1,966m + depreciation and amortisation $320m) / net sales $6,918m. It is the highest in the portfolio and the segment is the smallest by revenue, so it carries about 8% of net sales and 10% of company EBITDA.
  • Grooming grew 4% in fiscal 2026 with 3 points of currency and 2 points of price against a 1% volume decline, and the June quarter was flat organically. Volume has now fallen for two consecutive fiscal years; every reported point of growth is price and currency.
PG model map

Explore another vertical