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What has to happen in Fabric & Home Care

Model as of

This page changes Fabric & Home Care inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $100.64 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.48B 35% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $27.14B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Guidance is not reached and the multiple goes with it. The June quarter printed 0% organic growth with volume, price and mix all flat, Baby, Feminine & Family Care fell 2% organic, and Health Care's Oral Care lost volume in both North America and Greater China. Against that, fiscal 2027 carries a disclosed ~$1bn after-tax cost headwind worth $0.56 a share, most of it in the first half, and the CFO has already said first-quarter EPS will be 'down 5% or more'. The 0.25pp a quarter this case removes from every line is itself disclosed arithmetic: roughly 0.15pp of the trailing rate is the fiscal 2026 currency tailwind that guidance sets to zero, and about 0.10pp is the 30 to 50 basis points of brand, product form and go-to-market discontinuations P&G has put inside its own organic guidance. Margins give back 100bp for the reinvestment step-up and the exit falls to 12x, roughly the 2018 staples de-rating. Fiscal 2027 net sales land at $86.90bn, 0.15% below fiscal 2026 and below the guided floor of $87.90bn, and fair value is $100.64.

Fabric & Home Care

Basis quarter$7.43B
Final quarter$7.48B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix35%

Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain, Swiffer. The largest segment - 35% of net sales - and the anchor of the whole model.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7.79B Reported
2025 Q4 $7.69B Reported
2026 Q1 $7.40B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.43B Reported
Fabric Care (Fabric Enhancers, Laundry Additives, Laundry Detergents)Home Care (Air Care, Dish Care, P&G Professional, Surface Care)
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% 0.28%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised sales. At 35% of the company this rate sets the answer.
Fabric & Home Care

Latest: $7.48B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $7.01B
2021Q4 $6.97B
2022Q1 $6.70B
2022Q2 $6.88B
2022Q3 $7.08B
2022Q4 $7.03B
2023Q1 $7.02B
2023Q2 $7.24B
2023Q3 $7.65B
2023Q4 $7.42B
2024Q1 $7.17B
2024Q2 $7.26B
2024Q3 $7.71B
2024Q4 $7.58B
2025Q1 $6.95B
2025Q2 $7.38B
2025Q3 $7.79B
2025Q4 $7.69B
2026Q1 $7.40B
2026Q2 $7.43B
2026Q3E $7.76B
2026Q4E $7.59B
2027Q1E $7.25B
2027Q2E $7.44B
2027Q3E $7.77B
2027Q4E $7.60B
2028Q1E $7.26B
2028Q2E $7.45B
2028Q3E $7.78B
2028Q4E $7.61B
2029Q1E $7.26B
2029Q2E $7.46B
2029Q3E $7.79B
2029Q4E $7.62B
2030Q1E $7.27B
2030Q2E $7.47B
2030Q3E $7.80B
2030Q4E $7.63B
2031Q1E $7.28B
2031Q2E $7.48B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain and Swiffer are brands inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
  • The 26.54% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $7,290m + depreciation and amortisation $756m) / net sales $30,314m. At 35% of company net sales this vertical sets the consolidated growth rate, and its 0.28%/quarter deseasonalised trend is the binding constraint on the whole base case.
  • The seasonal shape here is real but small - a 7.0-point amplitude against a 2.1-point window-to-window spread, worth about plus or minus 3.5% around trend. July-September is above trend in all five years and January-March below it in four of five. The January 2026 Glad joint-venture dissolution removed a Home Care revenue stream; its $261m after-tax gain sits in Corporate, not here.
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