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What has to happen in Fabric & Home Care

Model as of

This page changes Fabric & Home Care inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $136.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.07B 35% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $29.79B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The new CEO's own framing, taken literally. Shailesh Jejurikar took over in January 2026 and told the July call that P&G would accelerate growth from semester to semester, with the cost headwind anniversaried by the back half. This case leaves the first half of fiscal 2027 exactly on the trailing run-rate while the $1bn after-tax cost vintage sits in it, then steps the five operating segments up 2.56% in level from the January-March 2027 quarter onward - Corporate is left alone, because an overhead residual should not be stepped up with the operating lines. The second half then prints $43.71bn, 3.0% above the same half of fiscal 2026, which is the top of the guided range; the year lands at $88.52bn, +1.70%. What this case does NOT reach is the guidance midpoint of about $88.77bn: a first half held at the trailing rate is too big a hole for one good half to fill, and getting there would need the second half to run above the top of the guided range. Fair value is $136.65, still 5.8% below the price, because a shaped year at 15x is worth about $3.60 a share more than a flat one, not $12.

Fabric & Home Care

Basis quarter$7.43B
Final quarter$8.07B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix35%

Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain, Swiffer. The largest segment - 35% of net sales - and the anchor of the whole model.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7.79B Reported
2025 Q4 $7.69B Reported
2026 Q1 $7.40B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.43B Reported
Fabric Care (Fabric Enhancers, Laundry Additives, Laundry Detergents)Home Care (Air Care, Dish Care, P&G Professional, Surface Care)
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% 0.28%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised sales. At 35% of the company this rate sets the answer.
Fabric & Home Care

Latest: $8.07B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $7.01B
2021Q4 $6.97B
2022Q1 $6.70B
2022Q2 $6.88B
2022Q3 $7.08B
2022Q4 $7.03B
2023Q1 $7.02B
2023Q2 $7.24B
2023Q3 $7.65B
2023Q4 $7.42B
2024Q1 $7.17B
2024Q2 $7.26B
2024Q3 $7.71B
2024Q4 $7.58B
2025Q1 $6.95B
2025Q2 $7.38B
2025Q3 $7.79B
2025Q4 $7.69B
2026Q1 $7.40B
2026Q2 $7.43B
2026Q3E $7.78B
2026Q4E $7.63B
2027Q1E $7.49B
2027Q2E $7.71B
2027Q3E $8.07B
2027Q4E $7.91B
2028Q1E $7.57B
2028Q2E $7.80B
2028Q3E $8.16B
2028Q4E $8.00B
2029Q1E $7.66B
2029Q2E $7.89B
2029Q3E $8.26B
2029Q4E $8.10B
2030Q1E $7.75B
2030Q2E $7.98B
2030Q3E $8.35B
2030Q4E $8.19B
2031Q1E $7.83B
2031Q2E $8.07B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain and Swiffer are brands inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
  • The 26.54% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $7,290m + depreciation and amortisation $756m) / net sales $30,314m. At 35% of company net sales this vertical sets the consolidated growth rate, and its 0.28%/quarter deseasonalised trend is the binding constraint on the whole base case.
  • The seasonal shape here is real but small - a 7.0-point amplitude against a 2.1-point window-to-window spread, worth about plus or minus 3.5% around trend. July-September is above trend in all five years and January-March below it in four of five. The January 2026 Glad joint-venture dissolution removed a Home Care revenue stream; its $261m after-tax gain sits in Corporate, not here.
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