PG · Forward model · Fabric & Home Care
What has to happen in Fabric & Home Care
Model as of
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Fabric & Home Care
Basis quarter$7.43B
Final quarter$7.87B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix35%
Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain, Swiffer. The largest segment - 35% of net sales - and the anchor of the whole model.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$7.79B
Reported
2025 Q4
$7.69B
Reported
2026 Q1
$7.40B
Reported
2026 Q2
$7.43B
Reported
Fabric Care (Fabric Enhancers, Laundry Additives, Laundry Detergents)Home Care (Air Care, Dish Care, P&G Professional, Surface Care)
Sequential growth
+0.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.3%
0.28%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised sales. At 35% of the company this rate sets the answer.
Fabric & Home Care
Latest: $7.87B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $7.01B |
| 2021Q4 | $6.97B |
| 2022Q1 | $6.70B |
| 2022Q2 | $6.88B |
| 2022Q3 | $7.08B |
| 2022Q4 | $7.03B |
| 2023Q1 | $7.02B |
| 2023Q2 | $7.24B |
| 2023Q3 | $7.65B |
| 2023Q4 | $7.42B |
| 2024Q1 | $7.17B |
| 2024Q2 | $7.26B |
| 2024Q3 | $7.71B |
| 2024Q4 | $7.58B |
| 2025Q1 | $6.95B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.38B |
| 2025Q3 | $7.79B |
| 2025Q4 | $7.69B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.40B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.43B |
| 2026Q3E | $7.78B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.63B |
| 2027Q1E | $7.30B |
| 2027Q2E | $7.52B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.87B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.72B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.38B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.60B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.96B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.80B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.47B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.69B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.05B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.89B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.55B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.78B |
| 2030Q3E | $8.14B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.98B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.64B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.87B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain and Swiffer are brands inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
- The 26.54% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $7,290m + depreciation and amortisation $756m) / net sales $30,314m. At 35% of company net sales this vertical sets the consolidated growth rate, and its 0.28%/quarter deseasonalised trend is the binding constraint on the whole base case.
- The seasonal shape here is real but small - a 7.0-point amplitude against a 2.1-point window-to-window spread, worth about plus or minus 3.5% around trend. July-September is above trend in all five years and January-March below it in four of five. The January 2026 Glad joint-venture dissolution removed a Home Care revenue stream; its $261m after-tax gain sits in Corporate, not here.