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PG · Forward model · Baby, Feminine & Family Care · Bull case

What has to happen in Baby, Feminine & Family Care

Model as of

This page changes Baby, Feminine & Family Care inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $168.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $5.92B 23% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $20.12B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The reinvestment works and the multiple holds. P&G put 410 basis points of the June quarter into product and brand reinvestment, funded by $2.8bn before tax of productivity, and management's stated planning assumption is category growth around 2% with markets growing 1% to 3% in local-currency value. If P&G holds share in a market growing at that rate and the 30 to 50 basis point discontinuation headwind laps, the guided range is reachable without heroics. This case adds 0.70pp a quarter to every line and exits at 17x, roughly the 2021-22 staples peak. Fiscal 2027 net sales reach $88.97bn, +2.22%, inside the +1% to +3% guidance and above its midpoint, and fair value is $168.38 - within a dollar and a half of RBC's target. What this case does NOT do is reach the +3% top of guidance: that would need about 1.0pp a quarter, which compounds to $111bn of net sales by fiscal 2031, a 5.0% annual rate no P&G disclosure supports over five years.

Baby, Feminine & Family Care

Basis quarter$5.05B
Final quarter$5.92B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix23%

Pampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty, Charmin. The only segment whose revenue is lower today than it was two years ago on a deseasonalised basis.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $5.17B Reported
2025 Q4 $5.12B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.06B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.05B Reported
Baby Care (Baby Wipes, Taped Diapers and Pants)Feminine Care (Adult Incontinence, Menstrual Care)Family Care (Paper Towels, Tissues, Toilet Paper)
Sequential growth +0.1%/qtr decaying toward +0.1% 0.10%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth. The trailing four-quarter rate is worse still, at -0.22% a quarter.
Baby, Feminine & Family Care

Latest: $5.92B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $4.86B
2021Q4 $5.12B
2022Q1 $4.93B
2022Q2 $4.82B
2022Q3 $4.93B
2022Q4 $5.07B
2023Q1 $5.06B
2023Q2 $5.16B
2023Q3 $5.19B
2023Q4 $5.15B
2024Q1 $4.94B
2024Q2 $5.01B
2024Q3 $5.10B
2024Q4 $5.30B
2025Q1 $4.75B
2025Q2 $5.09B
2025Q3 $5.17B
2025Q4 $5.12B
2026Q1 $5.06B
2026Q2 $5.05B
2026Q3E $5.09B
2026Q4E $5.13B
2027Q1E $5.17B
2027Q2E $5.21B
2027Q3E $5.25B
2027Q4E $5.30B
2028Q1E $5.34B
2028Q2E $5.38B
2028Q3E $5.42B
2028Q4E $5.47B
2029Q1E $5.51B
2029Q2E $5.56B
2029Q3E $5.60B
2029Q4E $5.64B
2030Q1E $5.69B
2030Q2E $5.74B
2030Q3E $5.78B
2030Q4E $5.83B
2031Q1E $5.87B
2031Q2E $5.92B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Left aseasonal on the evidence, not for want of testing. The derived amplitude is 4.2 points while the window-to-window spread is 3.8 points and the within-quarter spread reaches 6.1 points: the noise exceeds the signal on every test, and the apparent October-December tilt is carried entirely by the 2024-2025 window and absent from 2022-2023.
  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Pampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty and Charmin sit inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
  • The 29.31% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $5,145m + depreciation and amortisation $835m) / net sales $20,401m. Capital intensity is the highest in the portfolio at 7.45% of net sales - paper and diaper converting lines - so a line whose organic sales fell 2% in the June quarter still consumes cash.
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