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What has to happen in Beauty

Model as of

This page changes Beauty inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $168.38 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $5.38B 21% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $17.27B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The reinvestment works and the multiple holds. P&G put 410 basis points of the June quarter into product and brand reinvestment, funded by $2.8bn before tax of productivity, and management's stated planning assumption is category growth around 2% with markets growing 1% to 3% in local-currency value. If P&G holds share in a market growing at that rate and the 30 to 50 basis point discontinuation headwind laps, the guided range is reachable without heroics. This case adds 0.70pp a quarter to every line and exits at 17x, roughly the 2021-22 staples peak. Fiscal 2027 net sales reach $88.97bn, +2.22%, inside the +1% to +3% guidance and above its midpoint, and fair value is $168.38 - within a dollar and a half of RBC's target. What this case does NOT do is reach the +3% top of guidance: that would need about 1.0pp a quarter, which compounds to $111bn of net sales by fiscal 2031, a 5.0% annual rate no P&G disclosure supports over five years.

Beauty

Basis quarter$3.98B
Final quarter$5.38B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix21%

Hair Care, Personal Care and Skin Care. The fastest-growing segment in fiscal 2026 (+7% net sales, +5% organic) and the only one where volume, price and mix were all non-negative in the June quarter.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.14B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.04B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.87B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.98B Reported
Hair Care (Conditioners, Shampoos, Styling Aids, Treatments)Personal Care (Antiperspirants and Deodorants, Personal Cleansing)Skin Care (Facial Moisturizers, Cleaners and Treatments)
Sequential growth +0.8%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.82%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised Beauty net sales, the fastest line in the portfolio.
Beauty

Latest: $5.38B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $3.96B
2021Q4 $3.93B
2022Q1 $3.39B
2022Q2 $3.46B
2022Q3 $3.96B
2022Q4 $3.81B
2023Q1 $3.49B
2023Q2 $3.75B
2023Q3 $4.10B
2023Q4 $3.85B
2024Q1 $3.55B
2024Q2 $3.72B
2024Q3 $3.89B
2024Q4 $3.85B
2025Q1 $3.49B
2025Q2 $3.73B
2025Q3 $4.14B
2025Q4 $4.04B
2026Q1 $3.87B
2026Q2 $3.98B
2026Q3E $4.41B
2026Q4E $4.29B
2027Q1E $3.96B
2027Q2E $4.22B
2027Q3E $4.68B
2027Q4E $4.56B
2028Q1E $4.21B
2028Q2E $4.49B
2028Q3E $4.98B
2028Q4E $4.84B
2029Q1E $4.47B
2029Q2E $4.77B
2029Q3E $5.29B
2029Q4E $5.14B
2030Q1E $4.75B
2030Q2E $5.06B
2030Q3E $5.62B
2030Q4E $5.46B
2031Q1E $5.04B
2031Q2E $5.38B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen of the twenty quarters are read straight from a filed segment table; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year segment total less the disclosed nine-month segment column and are marked estimated. P&G publishes no dollar split of Beauty into Hair, Personal and Skin Care - only whole-percent-of-company shares - so none is invented here.
  • The 24.23% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026, not the June quarter: (segment earnings before income taxes $3,473m + segment depreciation and amortisation $410m) / net sales $16,023m. Segment D&A is disclosed annually only, so a quarterly margin cannot be built without inventing an allocation.
  • Beauty grew 7% in fiscal 2026 but two of those seven points were currency; on P&G's own reconciliation organic growth was 5% for the year and 4% in the June quarter. The 0.82%/quarter driver is fitted to reported, currency-inclusive history, which is why the base case is deliberately below the company's guidance range.
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