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What has to happen in Beauty

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This page changes Beauty inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $136.65 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.80B 21% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $16.44B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The new CEO's own framing, taken literally. Shailesh Jejurikar took over in January 2026 and told the July call that P&G would accelerate growth from semester to semester, with the cost headwind anniversaried by the back half. This case leaves the first half of fiscal 2027 exactly on the trailing run-rate while the $1bn after-tax cost vintage sits in it, then steps the five operating segments up 2.56% in level from the January-March 2027 quarter onward - Corporate is left alone, because an overhead residual should not be stepped up with the operating lines. The second half then prints $43.71bn, 3.0% above the same half of fiscal 2026, which is the top of the guided range; the year lands at $88.52bn, +1.70%. What this case does NOT reach is the guidance midpoint of about $88.77bn: a first half held at the trailing rate is too big a hole for one good half to fill, and getting there would need the second half to run above the top of the guided range. Fair value is $136.65, still 5.8% below the price, because a shaped year at 15x is worth about $3.60 a share more than a flat one, not $12.

Beauty

Basis quarter$3.98B
Final quarter$4.80B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix21%

Hair Care, Personal Care and Skin Care. The fastest-growing segment in fiscal 2026 (+7% net sales, +5% organic) and the only one where volume, price and mix were all non-negative in the June quarter.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.14B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.04B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.87B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.98B Reported
Hair Care (Conditioners, Shampoos, Styling Aids, Treatments)Personal Care (Antiperspirants and Deodorants, Personal Cleansing)Skin Care (Facial Moisturizers, Cleaners and Treatments)
Sequential growth +0.8%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.82%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised Beauty net sales, the fastest line in the portfolio.
Beauty

Latest: $4.80B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $3.96B
2021Q4 $3.93B
2022Q1 $3.39B
2022Q2 $3.46B
2022Q3 $3.96B
2022Q4 $3.81B
2023Q1 $3.49B
2023Q2 $3.75B
2023Q3 $4.10B
2023Q4 $3.85B
2024Q1 $3.55B
2024Q2 $3.72B
2024Q3 $3.89B
2024Q4 $3.85B
2025Q1 $3.49B
2025Q2 $3.73B
2025Q3 $4.14B
2025Q4 $4.04B
2026Q1 $3.87B
2026Q2 $3.98B
2026Q3E $4.38B
2026Q4E $4.23B
2027Q1E $3.98B
2027Q2E $4.21B
2027Q3E $4.64B
2027Q4E $4.48B
2028Q1E $4.11B
2028Q2E $4.35B
2028Q3E $4.79B
2028Q4E $4.63B
2029Q1E $4.25B
2029Q2E $4.50B
2029Q3E $4.95B
2029Q4E $4.78B
2030Q1E $4.39B
2030Q2E $4.65B
2030Q3E $5.12B
2030Q4E $4.94B
2031Q1E $4.53B
2031Q2E $4.80B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen of the twenty quarters are read straight from a filed segment table; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year segment total less the disclosed nine-month segment column and are marked estimated. P&G publishes no dollar split of Beauty into Hair, Personal and Skin Care - only whole-percent-of-company shares - so none is invented here.
  • The 24.23% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026, not the June quarter: (segment earnings before income taxes $3,473m + segment depreciation and amortisation $410m) / net sales $16,023m. Segment D&A is disclosed annually only, so a quarterly margin cannot be built without inventing an allocation.
  • Beauty grew 7% in fiscal 2026 but two of those seven points were currency; on P&G's own reconciliation organic growth was 5% for the year and 4% in the June quarter. The 0.82%/quarter driver is fitted to reported, currency-inclusive history, which is why the base case is deliberately below the company's guidance range.
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