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What has to happen in Beauty

Model as of

This page changes Beauty inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $100.64 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.45B 21% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $14.95B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Guidance is not reached and the multiple goes with it. The June quarter printed 0% organic growth with volume, price and mix all flat, Baby, Feminine & Family Care fell 2% organic, and Health Care's Oral Care lost volume in both North America and Greater China. Against that, fiscal 2027 carries a disclosed ~$1bn after-tax cost headwind worth $0.56 a share, most of it in the first half, and the CFO has already said first-quarter EPS will be 'down 5% or more'. The 0.25pp a quarter this case removes from every line is itself disclosed arithmetic: roughly 0.15pp of the trailing rate is the fiscal 2026 currency tailwind that guidance sets to zero, and about 0.10pp is the 30 to 50 basis points of brand, product form and go-to-market discontinuations P&G has put inside its own organic guidance. Margins give back 100bp for the reinvestment step-up and the exit falls to 12x, roughly the 2018 staples de-rating. Fiscal 2027 net sales land at $86.90bn, 0.15% below fiscal 2026 and below the guided floor of $87.90bn, and fair value is $100.64.

Beauty

Basis quarter$3.98B
Final quarter$4.45B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix21%

Hair Care, Personal Care and Skin Care. The fastest-growing segment in fiscal 2026 (+7% net sales, +5% organic) and the only one where volume, price and mix were all non-negative in the June quarter.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.14B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.04B Reported
2026 Q1 $3.87B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.98B Reported
Hair Care (Conditioners, Shampoos, Styling Aids, Treatments)Personal Care (Antiperspirants and Deodorants, Personal Cleansing)Skin Care (Facial Moisturizers, Cleaners and Treatments)
Sequential growth +0.8%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.82%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised Beauty net sales, the fastest line in the portfolio.
Beauty

Latest: $4.45B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $3.96B
2021Q4 $3.93B
2022Q1 $3.39B
2022Q2 $3.46B
2022Q3 $3.96B
2022Q4 $3.81B
2023Q1 $3.49B
2023Q2 $3.75B
2023Q3 $4.10B
2023Q4 $3.85B
2024Q1 $3.55B
2024Q2 $3.72B
2024Q3 $3.89B
2024Q4 $3.85B
2025Q1 $3.49B
2025Q2 $3.73B
2025Q3 $4.14B
2025Q4 $4.04B
2026Q1 $3.87B
2026Q2 $3.98B
2026Q3E $4.37B
2026Q4E $4.21B
2027Q1E $3.85B
2027Q2E $4.07B
2027Q3E $4.47B
2027Q4E $4.30B
2028Q1E $3.94B
2028Q2E $4.16B
2028Q3E $4.57B
2028Q4E $4.40B
2029Q1E $4.03B
2029Q2E $4.25B
2029Q3E $4.67B
2029Q4E $4.50B
2030Q1E $4.12B
2030Q2E $4.35B
2030Q3E $4.78B
2030Q4E $4.61B
2031Q1E $4.21B
2031Q2E $4.45B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen of the twenty quarters are read straight from a filed segment table; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year segment total less the disclosed nine-month segment column and are marked estimated. P&G publishes no dollar split of Beauty into Hair, Personal and Skin Care - only whole-percent-of-company shares - so none is invented here.
  • The 24.23% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026, not the June quarter: (segment earnings before income taxes $3,473m + segment depreciation and amortisation $410m) / net sales $16,023m. Segment D&A is disclosed annually only, so a quarterly margin cannot be built without inventing an allocation.
  • Beauty grew 7% in fiscal 2026 but two of those seven points were currency; on P&G's own reconciliation organic growth was 5% for the year and 4% in the June quarter. The 0.82%/quarter driver is fitted to reported, currency-inclusive history, which is why the base case is deliberately below the company's guidance range.
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