← The Procter & Gamble Company
PG · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Every revenue line here is a reportable segment P&G discloses, not an apportionment. The five operating segments plus Corporate sum to reported consolidated net sales in all twenty quarters, with a largest residual of $2m on $21bn - P&G's own rounding in its $-million segment table. Sixteen of the twenty quarters per line are read from a filed segment table; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year segment total less the disclosed nine-month segment column and are marked estimated, and the most recent of them is independently confirmed line by line in the Q4 fiscal 2026 8-K. NOT disclosed and therefore not modelled: any dollar split of a segment into its named categories - P&G publishes only whole-percent-of-company shares such as 'Fabric Care 23%' - any geographic split below US and international totals, any unit, volume or household count, and any allocation of restructuring cost to a segment. Because P&G discloses no operational level for any segment, every vertical uses the growth driver; the volume, currency, price, mix and acquisition percentages the company does publish are evidence for the rate, not a level to model. Segment EBITDA margins are fiscal 2026 GAAP figures - (segment earnings before income taxes + segment depreciation and amortisation) / segment net sales - because segment D&A is disclosed annually only; the June quarter itself was restructuring-depressed at 18.6% GAAP operating margin against 19.5% core. The whole of the restructuring programme, the interest line and the unallocated overhead sit in the Corporate vertical, so corporate.overheadPctRevenue is zero to avoid counting them twice. The 20% tax rate is P&G's guided fiscal 2027 core effective rate. Consensus EPS for this company is a core figure and must never be paired with the site's stored GAAP EPS: the June quarter's $1.43 core beat a $1.41-$1.42 street number, while GAAP was $1.26.
Guidance is not reached and the multiple goes with it. The June quarter printed 0% organic growth with volume, price and mix all flat, Baby, Feminine & Family Care fell 2% organic, and Health Care's Oral Care lost volume in both North America and Greater China. Against that, fiscal 2027 carries a disclosed ~$1bn after-tax cost headwind worth $0.56 a share, most of it in the first half, and the CFO has already said first-quarter EPS will be 'down 5% or more'. The 0.25pp a quarter this case removes from every line is itself disclosed arithmetic: roughly 0.15pp of the trailing rate is the fiscal 2026 currency tailwind that guidance sets to zero, and about 0.10pp is the 30 to 50 basis points of brand, product form and go-to-market discontinuations P&G has put inside its own organic guidance. Margins give back 100bp for the reinvestment step-up and the exit falls to 12x, roughly the 2018 staples de-rating. Fiscal 2027 net sales land at $86.90bn, 0.15% below fiscal 2026 and below the guided floor of $87.90bn, and fair value is $100.64.
Latest: $21.67B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $20.34B |
| 2021Q4 | $20.95B |
| 2022Q1 | $19.38B |
| 2022Q2 | $19.52B |
| 2022Q3 | $20.61B |
| 2022Q4 | $20.77B |
| 2023Q1 | $20.07B |
| 2023Q2 | $20.55B |
| 2023Q3 | $21.87B |
| 2023Q4 | $21.44B |
| 2024Q1 | $20.20B |
| 2024Q2 | $20.53B |
| 2024Q3 | $21.74B |
| 2024Q4 | $21.88B |
| 2025Q1 | $19.78B |
| 2025Q2 | $20.89B |
| 2025Q3 | $22.39B |
| 2025Q4 | $22.21B |
| 2026Q1 | $21.23B |
| 2026Q2 | $21.20B |
| 2026Q3E | $22.41B |
| 2026Q4E | $22.23B |
| 2027Q1E | $20.96B |
| 2027Q2E | $21.29B |
| 2027Q3E | $22.51B |
| 2027Q4E | $22.33B |
| 2028Q1E | $21.05B |
| 2028Q2E | $21.38B |
| 2028Q3E | $22.61B |
| 2028Q4E | $22.43B |
| 2029Q1E | $21.14B |
| 2029Q2E | $21.48B |
| 2029Q3E | $22.72B |
| 2029Q4E | $22.53B |
| 2030Q1E | $21.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $21.57B |
| 2030Q3E | $22.83B |
| 2030Q4E | $22.64B |
| 2031Q1E | $21.33B |
| 2031Q2E | $21.67B |
What drives each segment
Beauty
Growth pathHair Care, Personal Care and Skin Care. The fastest-growing segment in fiscal 2026 (+7% net sales, +5% organic) and the only one where volume, price and mix were all non-negative in the June quarter.
Latest: $4.45B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $3.96B |
| 2021Q4 | $3.93B |
| 2022Q1 | $3.39B |
| 2022Q2 | $3.46B |
| 2022Q3 | $3.96B |
| 2022Q4 | $3.81B |
| 2023Q1 | $3.49B |
| 2023Q2 | $3.75B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.10B |
| 2023Q4 | $3.85B |
| 2024Q1 | $3.55B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.72B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.89B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.85B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.49B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.73B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.14B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.04B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.87B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.98B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.37B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.21B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.85B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.07B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.47B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.30B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.94B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.16B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.57B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.40B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.03B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.25B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.67B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.50B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.12B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.35B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.78B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.61B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.21B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.45B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen of the twenty quarters are read straight from a filed segment table; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year segment total less the disclosed nine-month segment column and are marked estimated. P&G publishes no dollar split of Beauty into Hair, Personal and Skin Care - only whole-percent-of-company shares - so none is invented here.
- The 24.23% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026, not the June quarter: (segment earnings before income taxes $3,473m + segment depreciation and amortisation $410m) / net sales $16,023m. Segment D&A is disclosed annually only, so a quarterly margin cannot be built without inventing an allocation.
- Beauty grew 7% in fiscal 2026 but two of those seven points were currency; on P&G's own reconciliation organic growth was 5% for the year and 4% in the June quarter. The 0.82%/quarter driver is fitted to reported, currency-inclusive history, which is why the base case is deliberately below the company's guidance range.
Grooming
Growth pathBlades, razors and appliances under Gillette, Venus and Braun. The highest-margin segment at 33.0% EBITDA and the smallest by revenue.
Latest: $1.72B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $1.69B |
| 2021Q4 | $1.81B |
| 2022Q1 | $1.48B |
| 2022Q2 | $1.61B |
| 2022Q3 | $1.62B |
| 2022Q4 | $1.64B |
| 2023Q1 | $1.50B |
| 2023Q2 | $1.66B |
| 2023Q3 | $1.72B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.73B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.54B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.66B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.72B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.75B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.50B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.82B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.79B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.61B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.70B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.77B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.77B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.56B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.70B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.77B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.78B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.56B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.71B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.78B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.78B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.56B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.71B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.78B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.79B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.57B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.72B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.79B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.79B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.57B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.72B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Gillette, Venus and Braun are named brands within one reportable segment, and P&G reports no dollar split between them.
- The 33.04% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $1,966m + depreciation and amortisation $320m) / net sales $6,918m. It is the highest in the portfolio and the segment is the smallest by revenue, so it carries about 8% of net sales and 10% of company EBITDA.
- Grooming grew 4% in fiscal 2026 with 3 points of currency and 2 points of price against a 1% volume decline, and the June quarter was flat organically. Volume has now fallen for two consecutive fiscal years; every reported point of growth is price and currency.
Health Care
Growth pathOral Care (Crest, Oral-B) and Personal Health Care (Vicks, Metamucil, Pepto-Bismol). The most seasonal line in the company.
Latest: $2.83B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $2.68B |
| 2021Q4 | $2.98B |
| 2022Q1 | $2.66B |
| 2022Q2 | $2.51B |
| 2022Q3 | $2.76B |
| 2022Q4 | $3.05B |
| 2023Q1 | $2.83B |
| 2023Q2 | $2.59B |
| 2023Q3 | $3.07B |
| 2023Q4 | $3.17B |
| 2024Q1 | $2.87B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.67B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.15B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.25B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.88B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.72B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.22B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.41B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.07B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.76B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.18B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.34B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.00B |
| 2027Q2E | $2.77B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.19B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.35B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.01B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.79B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.21B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.37B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.03B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.80B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.23B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.39B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.04B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.82B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.24B |
| 2030Q4E | $3.41B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.06B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.83B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. No dollar split between Oral Care and Personal Health Care is disclosed and none is manufactured.
- The four seasonal factors are the largest and most economically legible shape in the company: October-December peaks at 1.087 and April-June troughs at 0.901, which is the cold, flu and respiratory season in Personal Health Care. The 10-K names Personal Health Care as a seasonal component while saying no reportable segment is highly seasonal, and both statements are consistent with an 18.7-point amplitude on a 2.5-point window-to-window spread.
- The 28.92% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $3,163m + depreciation and amortisation $439m) / net sales $12,456m. Health Care organic sales fell 1% in the June quarter, with Oral Care down mid single digits on volume declines in North America and Greater China.
Fabric & Home Care
Growth pathTide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain, Swiffer. The largest segment - 35% of net sales - and the anchor of the whole model.
Latest: $7.48B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $7.01B |
| 2021Q4 | $6.97B |
| 2022Q1 | $6.70B |
| 2022Q2 | $6.88B |
| 2022Q3 | $7.08B |
| 2022Q4 | $7.03B |
| 2023Q1 | $7.02B |
| 2023Q2 | $7.24B |
| 2023Q3 | $7.65B |
| 2023Q4 | $7.42B |
| 2024Q1 | $7.17B |
| 2024Q2 | $7.26B |
| 2024Q3 | $7.71B |
| 2024Q4 | $7.58B |
| 2025Q1 | $6.95B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.38B |
| 2025Q3 | $7.79B |
| 2025Q4 | $7.69B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.40B |
| 2026Q2 | $7.43B |
| 2026Q3E | $7.76B |
| 2026Q4E | $7.59B |
| 2027Q1E | $7.25B |
| 2027Q2E | $7.44B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.77B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.60B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.26B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.45B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.78B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.61B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.26B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.46B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.79B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.62B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.27B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.47B |
| 2030Q3E | $7.80B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.63B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.28B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.48B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Tide, Ariel, Downy, Dawn, Febreze, Gain and Swiffer are brands inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
- The 26.54% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $7,290m + depreciation and amortisation $756m) / net sales $30,314m. At 35% of company net sales this vertical sets the consolidated growth rate, and its 0.28%/quarter deseasonalised trend is the binding constraint on the whole base case.
- The seasonal shape here is real but small - a 7.0-point amplitude against a 2.1-point window-to-window spread, worth about plus or minus 3.5% around trend. July-September is above trend in all five years and January-March below it in four of five. The January 2026 Glad joint-venture dissolution removed a Home Care revenue stream; its $261m after-tax gain sits in Corporate, not here.
Baby, Feminine & Family Care
Growth pathPampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty, Charmin. The only segment whose revenue is lower today than it was two years ago on a deseasonalised basis.
Latest: $4.90B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $4.86B |
| 2021Q4 | $5.12B |
| 2022Q1 | $4.93B |
| 2022Q2 | $4.82B |
| 2022Q3 | $4.93B |
| 2022Q4 | $5.07B |
| 2023Q1 | $5.06B |
| 2023Q2 | $5.16B |
| 2023Q3 | $5.19B |
| 2023Q4 | $5.15B |
| 2024Q1 | $4.94B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.01B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.10B |
| 2024Q4 | $5.30B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.75B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.09B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.17B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.12B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.06B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.05B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.04B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.03B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.03B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.02B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.01B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.00B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.00B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.99B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.98B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.97B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.97B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.96B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.95B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.94B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.94B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.93B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.92B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.91B |
| 2031Q1E | $4.91B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.90B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Left aseasonal on the evidence, not for want of testing. The derived amplitude is 4.2 points while the window-to-window spread is 3.8 points and the within-quarter spread reaches 6.1 points: the noise exceeds the signal on every test, and the apparent October-December tilt is carried entirely by the 2024-2025 window and absent from 2022-2023.
- Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Pampers, Always, Whisper, Bounty and Charmin sit inside one reportable segment with no disclosed dollar split.
- The 29.31% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $5,145m + depreciation and amortisation $835m) / net sales $20,401m. Capital intensity is the highest in the portfolio at 7.45% of net sales - paper and diaper converting lines - so a line whose organic sales fell 2% in the June quarter still consumes cash.
Corporate
Growth pathNot a business. Corporate carries incidental businesses managed at the corporate level, divested-brand gains and losses, unallocated employee benefit and restructuring costs, asset impairments, interest expense and the reconciliation from segment blended statutory tax rates to the group effective rate. It is included as a revenue-bearing vertical only so that vertical revenue reconciles exactly to reported net sales.
Latest: $292M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q3 | $138M |
| 2021Q4 | $152M |
| 2022Q1 | $215M |
| 2022Q2 | $239M |
| 2022Q3 | $253M |
| 2022Q4 | $175M |
| 2023Q1 | $173M |
| 2023Q2 | $164M |
| 2023Q3 | $144M |
| 2023Q4 | $126M |
| 2024Q1 | $128M |
| 2024Q2 | $203M |
| 2024Q3 | $163M |
| 2024Q4 | $159M |
| 2025Q1 | $198M |
| 2025Q2 | $274M |
| 2025Q3 | $242M |
| 2025Q4 | $160M |
| 2026Q1 | $225M |
| 2026Q2 | $292M |
| 2026Q3E | $292M |
| 2026Q4E | $292M |
| 2027Q1E | $292M |
| 2027Q2E | $292M |
| 2027Q3E | $292M |
| 2027Q4E | $292M |
| 2028Q1E | $292M |
| 2028Q2E | $292M |
| 2028Q3E | $292M |
| 2028Q4E | $292M |
| 2029Q1E | $292M |
| 2029Q2E | $292M |
| 2029Q3E | $292M |
| 2029Q4E | $292M |
| 2030Q1E | $292M |
| 2030Q2E | $292M |
| 2030Q3E | $292M |
| 2030Q4E | $292M |
| 2031Q1E | $292M |
| 2031Q2E | $292M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Corporate is carried as a sixth revenue-bearing vertical because P&G reports $919m of Corporate net sales that have to be in the revenue reconciliation; excluding it would leave a 1.06% hole against reported consolidated net sales. It is not a business: it holds incidental businesses managed at the corporate level, divested-brand gains and losses, unallocated employee benefit and restructuring costs, asset impairments and interest.
- Because this vertical already is the unallocated overhead, corporate.overheadPctRevenue is set to zero. Adding a second overhead line on top would count the same cost twice. The -96.74% EBITDA margin is (Corporate operating loss $(1,289)m + Corporate depreciation and amortisation $400m) / Corporate net sales $919m - a $889m cost on $919m of revenue, which is why the percentage is meaningless as a margin and correct as an arithmetic carrier.
- The terminal margin of -15.23% is the one assumed margin change in the model. It removes the $749m of incremental restructuring P&G adjusted out of fiscal 2026 core earnings, because the Focused Portfolio, Supply Chain and Productivity Plan announced in June 2025 runs two years and P&G guides only $0.13 to $0.17 per share of non-core restructuring left in fiscal 2027. The ongoing $250-500m annual restructuring baseline stays in the line. The 0.35 glide closes 82% of that gap inside four quarters.
- The trailing deseasonalised rate for this line is 4.65% a quarter, which is an artefact of a small residual that swings between $126m and $292m with no repeating pattern. Extrapolating it would add $391m of phantom revenue in fiscal 2027 and about $2.4bn by 2031, so growth is pinned at 0.25% a quarter as an explicit assumption.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the June quarter actually printed
- Jul 29, 2026 Organic sales, which exclude the impacts of foreign exchange and acquisitions and divestitures, were unchanged versus the prior year.
- Jul 29, 2026 Included in this organic sales growth guidance is a headwind of 30 to 50 basis points from brand, product form and go-to-market discontinuations.
The cost headwind, and where it lands
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
What the reinvestment is buying, in the CFO's words
The guided range this case sits inside
- Jul 29, 2026 P&G expects fiscal year 2027 all-in sales growth in the range of one to three percent versus the prior year.
- Jul 29, 2026 core earnings per share growth in the range of in-line to three percent versus fiscal 2026 core EPS of $6.89. This outlook equates to a range of $6.89 to $7.11 per share, with a mid-point estimate of $7.00.
Jejurikar case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Jejurikar column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The semester-to-semester claim
- Aug 7, 2026 we do expect to have the cost anniversaried as we go into the back half as well as have continued sequential improvements in our top-line as we move forward
- Jul 29, 2026 We are confident in our plans to accelerate growth from semester-to-semester, and our investments will be funded with a strong productivity program.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $61.52B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $88.47B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $22.98B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 12.0x |
| Terminal value | $275.75B |
| Discounted at 7.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $196.60B |
| Enterprise value | $258.12B |
| Net cash | -$24.20B |
| Equity value | $233.93B |
| Shares | 2.32B |
| Fair value per share | $100.64 |
| Against the current price of $143.14 | -30% |
P&G trades at 15.77x trailing EBITDA: an enterprise value of $361.2bn - $337.0bn of market capitalisation on 2,324,433,060 shares at $145.00, plus $24.2bn of net debt - over fiscal 2026 EBITDA of $22,908m, which is reported operating income of $19,748m plus $3,160m of depreciation and amortisation. That is 21.9x trailing GAAP EPS of $6.62 and 20.7x the $7.00 core guidance midpoint; StockAnalysis independently shows 21.89x and 20.75x. The base case exits at 15.0x, a shade below today's rating, because a terminal multiple should not assume the current one survives five years on a company whose June-quarter organic sales growth was zero with volume, price and mix all flat. The 7.0% discount rate is a staples cost of capital for an A-rated issuer on a 3.0% dividend yield; P&G discloses no WACC. This one assumption dominates: $267.3bn of the base case's $333.4bn enterprise value, 80%, is the discounted exit multiple, and one turn of EBITDA on the $24.99bn terminal year is $17.8bn once discounted, about $7.66 a share.
Read the other way round: at $143.14 the market is paying 18.0x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | Beauty | Grooming | Health Care | Fabric & Home Care | Baby, Feminine & Family Care | Corporate | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $4.37B | $1.77B | $3.18B | $7.76B | $5.04B | $292M | $22.41B | +0% | $5.68B | $1.13B | $3.64B | +16 | $3.58B |
| 2026 Q4E | $4.21B | $1.77B | $3.34B | $7.59B | $5.03B | $292M | $22.23B | +0% | $5.69B | $1.12B | $3.66B | +17 | $3.53B |
| 2027 Q1E | $3.85B | $1.56B | $3.00B | $7.25B | $5.03B | $292M | $20.96B | -1% | $5.39B | $1.07B | $3.46B | +15 | $3.29B |
| 2027 Q2E | $4.07B | $1.70B | $2.77B | $7.44B | $5.02B | $292M | $21.29B | +0% | $5.50B | $1.08B | $3.53B | +17 | $3.30B |
| 2027 Q3E | $4.47B | $1.77B | $3.19B | $7.77B | $5.01B | $292M | $22.51B | +0% | $5.83B | $1.13B | $3.76B | +17 | $3.45B |
| 2027 Q4E | $4.30B | $1.78B | $3.35B | $7.60B | $5.00B | $292M | $22.33B | +0% | $5.80B | $1.13B | $3.74B | +17 | $3.38B |
| 2028 Q1E | $3.94B | $1.56B | $3.01B | $7.26B | $5.00B | $292M | $21.05B | +0% | $5.46B | $1.07B | $3.52B | +17 | $3.12B |
| 2028 Q2E | $4.16B | $1.71B | $2.79B | $7.45B | $4.99B | $292M | $21.38B | +0% | $5.55B | $1.08B | $3.58B | +17 | $3.12B |
| 2028 Q3E | $4.57B | $1.78B | $3.21B | $7.78B | $4.98B | $292M | $22.61B | +0% | $5.87B | $1.13B | $3.79B | +17 | $3.26B |
| 2028 Q4E | $4.40B | $1.78B | $3.37B | $7.61B | $4.97B | $292M | $22.43B | +0% | $5.84B | $1.13B | $3.77B | +17 | $3.18B |
| 2029 Q1E | $4.03B | $1.56B | $3.03B | $7.26B | $4.97B | $292M | $21.14B | +0% | $5.49B | $1.07B | $3.54B | +17 | $2.94B |
| 2029 Q2E | $4.25B | $1.71B | $2.80B | $7.46B | $4.96B | $292M | $21.48B | +0% | $5.58B | $1.08B | $3.60B | +17 | $2.94B |
| 2029 Q3E | $4.67B | $1.78B | $3.23B | $7.79B | $4.95B | $292M | $22.72B | +0% | $5.90B | $1.13B | $3.81B | +17 | $3.06B |
| 2029 Q4E | $4.50B | $1.79B | $3.39B | $7.62B | $4.94B | $292M | $22.53B | +0% | $5.86B | $1.13B | $3.79B | +17 | $2.99B |
| 2030 Q1E | $4.12B | $1.57B | $3.04B | $7.27B | $4.94B | $292M | $21.23B | +0% | $5.52B | $1.07B | $3.56B | +17 | $2.76B |
| 2030 Q2E | $4.35B | $1.72B | $2.82B | $7.47B | $4.93B | $292M | $21.57B | +0% | $5.60B | $1.09B | $3.61B | +17 | $2.76B |
| 2030 Q3E | $4.78B | $1.79B | $3.24B | $7.80B | $4.92B | $292M | $22.83B | +0% | $5.93B | $1.14B | $3.83B | +17 | $2.88B |
| 2030 Q4E | $4.61B | $1.79B | $3.41B | $7.63B | $4.91B | $292M | $22.64B | +0% | $5.89B | $1.13B | $3.81B | +17 | $2.81B |
| 2031 Q1E | $4.21B | $1.57B | $3.06B | $7.28B | $4.91B | $292M | $21.33B | +0% | $5.54B | $1.07B | $3.57B | +17 | $2.59B |
| 2031 Q2E | $4.45B | $1.72B | $2.83B | $7.48B | $4.90B | $292M | $21.67B | +0% | $5.63B | $1.09B | $3.63B | +17 | $2.59B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | all | $133.02 | First published model. Built on the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter reported 29 July 2026: six disclosed segment lines across twenty quarters, four-factor seasonality on the four segments where the derived shape beats its own window-to-window spread, and a base case pinned to trailing deseasonalised growth rather than to guidance. |