PG · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Every revenue line here is a reportable segment P&G discloses, not an apportionment. The five operating segments plus Corporate sum to reported consolidated net sales in all twenty quarters, with a largest residual of $2m on $21bn - P&G's own rounding in its $-million segment table. Sixteen of the twenty quarters per line are read from a filed segment table; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year segment total less the disclosed nine-month segment column and are marked estimated, and the most recent of them is independently confirmed line by line in the Q4 fiscal 2026 8-K. NOT disclosed and therefore not modelled: any dollar split of a segment into its named categories - P&G publishes only whole-percent-of-company shares such as 'Fabric Care 23%' - any geographic split below US and international totals, any unit, volume or household count, and any allocation of restructuring cost to a segment. Because P&G discloses no operational level for any segment, every vertical uses the growth driver; the volume, currency, price, mix and acquisition percentages the company does publish are evidence for the rate, not a level to model. Segment EBITDA margins are fiscal 2026 GAAP figures - (segment earnings before income taxes + segment depreciation and amortisation) / segment net sales - because segment D&A is disclosed annually only; the June quarter itself was restructuring-depressed at 18.6% GAAP operating margin against 19.5% core. The whole of the restructuring programme, the interest line and the unallocated overhead sit in the Corporate vertical, so corporate.overheadPctRevenue is zero to avoid counting them twice. The 20% tax rate is P&G's guided fiscal 2027 core effective rate. Consensus EPS for this company is a core figure and must never be paired with the site's stored GAAP EPS: the June quarter's $1.43 core beat a $1.41-$1.42 street number, while GAAP was $1.26.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.