PG · Forward model · Baby, Feminine & Family Care · Bear case

Guidance is not reached and the multiple goes with it. The June quarter printed 0% organic growth with volume, price and mix all flat, Baby, Feminine & Family Care fell 2% organic, and Health Care's Oral Care lost volume in both North America and Greater China. Against that, fiscal 2027 carries a disclosed ~$1bn after-tax cost headwind worth $0.56 a share, most of it in the first half, and the CFO has already said first-quarter EPS will be 'down 5% or more'. The 0.25pp a quarter this case removes from every line is itself disclosed arithmetic: roughly 0.15pp of the trailing rate is the fiscal 2026 currency tailwind that guidance sets to zero, and about 0.10pp is the 30 to 50 basis points of brand, product form and go-to-market discontinuations P&G has put inside its own organic guidance. Margins give back 100bp for the reinvestment step-up and the exit falls to 12x, roughly the 2018 staples de-rating. Fiscal 2027 net sales land at $86.90bn, 0.15% below fiscal 2026 and below the guided floor of $87.90bn, and fair value is $100.64.