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What has to happen in Grooming

Model as of

This page changes Grooming inside the complete PG model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

PG forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $100.64 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.72B 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $6.97B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Guidance is not reached and the multiple goes with it. The June quarter printed 0% organic growth with volume, price and mix all flat, Baby, Feminine & Family Care fell 2% organic, and Health Care's Oral Care lost volume in both North America and Greater China. Against that, fiscal 2027 carries a disclosed ~$1bn after-tax cost headwind worth $0.56 a share, most of it in the first half, and the CFO has already said first-quarter EPS will be 'down 5% or more'. The 0.25pp a quarter this case removes from every line is itself disclosed arithmetic: roughly 0.15pp of the trailing rate is the fiscal 2026 currency tailwind that guidance sets to zero, and about 0.10pp is the 30 to 50 basis points of brand, product form and go-to-market discontinuations P&G has put inside its own organic guidance. Margins give back 100bp for the reinvestment step-up and the exit falls to 12x, roughly the 2018 staples de-rating. Fiscal 2027 net sales land at $86.90bn, 0.15% below fiscal 2026 and below the guided floor of $87.90bn, and fair value is $100.64.

Grooming

Basis quarter$1.70B
Final quarter$1.72B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix8%

Blades, razors and appliances under Gillette, Venus and Braun. The highest-margin segment at 33.0% EBITDA and the smallest by revenue.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.82B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.79B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.61B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.70B Reported
Grooming (Appliances, Female Blades & Razors, Male Blades & Razors, Pre- and Post-Shave Products, Other Grooming)
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.3% 0.31%/qtr: eight-quarter compound growth of deseasonalised Grooming net sales - price and currency, not volume.
Grooming

Latest: $1.72B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2021Q3 $1.69B
2021Q4 $1.81B
2022Q1 $1.48B
2022Q2 $1.61B
2022Q3 $1.62B
2022Q4 $1.64B
2023Q1 $1.50B
2023Q2 $1.66B
2023Q3 $1.72B
2023Q4 $1.73B
2024Q1 $1.54B
2024Q2 $1.66B
2024Q3 $1.72B
2024Q4 $1.75B
2025Q1 $1.50B
2025Q2 $1.68B
2025Q3 $1.82B
2025Q4 $1.79B
2026Q1 $1.61B
2026Q2 $1.70B
2026Q3E $1.77B
2026Q4E $1.77B
2027Q1E $1.56B
2027Q2E $1.70B
2027Q3E $1.77B
2027Q4E $1.78B
2028Q1E $1.56B
2028Q2E $1.71B
2028Q3E $1.78B
2028Q4E $1.78B
2029Q1E $1.56B
2029Q2E $1.71B
2029Q3E $1.78B
2029Q4E $1.79B
2030Q1E $1.57B
2030Q2E $1.72B
2030Q3E $1.79B
2030Q4E $1.79B
2031Q1E $1.57B
2031Q2E $1.72B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment identity, not an apportionment. Sixteen quarters are read from filed segment tables; the four April-June quarters are derived as fiscal-year total less the nine-month column and are marked estimated. Gillette, Venus and Braun are named brands within one reportable segment, and P&G reports no dollar split between them.
  • The 33.04% EBITDA margin is fiscal 2026: (earnings before income taxes $1,966m + depreciation and amortisation $320m) / net sales $6,918m. It is the highest in the portfolio and the segment is the smallest by revenue, so it carries about 8% of net sales and 10% of company EBITDA.
  • Grooming grew 4% in fiscal 2026 with 3 points of currency and 2 points of price against a 1% volume decline, and the June quarter was flat organically. Volume has now fallen for two consecutive fiscal years; every reported point of growth is price and currency.
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