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What has to happen in Other

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This page changes Other inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $377.66 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $183M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.24B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Take the guidance literally. Raised full-year guidance of $85.0-$87.0 billion against $42.773 billion already booked in the first half leaves $42.2-$44.2 billion for the second - flat to slightly up sequentially after a first half that grew 51% year over year. This case assumes that is real: the prior-period rebate and discount adjustments and the $250 million Jardiance milestone that flattered the first half are stripped out as a 10% level step on the cardiometabolic run rate, trend growth runs a point a quarter below base, margin gives up three points to price erosion, and the exit multiple compresses to 4.5x revenue. FY2026 lands at $85.9 billion, inside the guided range and near its bottom.

Other

Basis quarter$205M
Final quarter$183M
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix1%

Collaboration, royalty and non-therapeutic revenue. At $205M it is 0.9% of the company and lumpy by construction: it moves when contracts say it does, not when the calendar does, so it is modelled as close to flat.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $337M Reported
2025 Q4 $191M Estimated
2026 Q1 $187M Reported
2026 Q2 $205M Reported
collaboration and other revenue
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% 1.0% a quarter, well below the 7.9% four-quarter average, because that average is driven by one $337M quarter in 2025 Q3.
Other

Latest: $183M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $242M
2024Q2 $208M
2024Q3 $263M
2024Q4 $191M
2025Q1 $213M
2025Q2 $202M
2025Q3 $337M
2025Q4 $191M
2026Q1 $187M
2026Q2 $205M
2026Q3E $205M
2026Q4E $205M
2027Q1E $204M
2027Q2E $204M
2027Q3E $203M
2027Q4E $202M
2028Q1E $201M
2028Q2E $200M
2028Q3E $199M
2028Q4E $198M
2029Q1E $197M
2029Q2E $195M
2029Q3E $194M
2029Q4E $192M
2030Q1E $191M
2030Q2E $189M
2030Q3E $188M
2030Q4E $186M
2031Q1E $185M
2031Q2E $183M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Left ASEASONAL on the brief's own diagnostics: the apparent Q3 factor of 1.33 rests on two observations, $262.8M in 2024 Q3 and $337.2M in 2025 Q3, and the Q1 factor moves 0.104 between the two windows - larger than three of the four factors' deviation from 1.0.
  • The 2024-vintage 10-Q presented a narrower 'Other' line, $50.0M for 2024 Q2 against the restated $207.6M, and only the restated basis makes the five areas sum to reported consolidated revenue. Every figure here is on the restated basis.
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