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What has to happen in Other

Model as of

This page changes Other inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $855.29 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $267M 1% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.51B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The CEO's own framing, priced. Growth continues AND the company keeps spending into it - new manufacturing capacity, and pipeline bought through business development rather than harvested. In model terms that is trend growth 0.6 points a quarter above base with 2.5 points less margin, because the acquired in-process R&D charge that funds the pipeline is a permanent cost rather than the one-off it is presented as. It is worth more than base and less than bull, and it is the only case here in which faster growth costs something.

Other

Basis quarter$205M
Final quarter$267M
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix1%

Collaboration, royalty and non-therapeutic revenue. At $205M it is 0.9% of the company and lumpy by construction: it moves when contracts say it does, not when the calendar does, so it is modelled as close to flat.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $337M Reported
2025 Q4 $191M Estimated
2026 Q1 $187M Reported
2026 Q2 $205M Reported
collaboration and other revenue
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +0.5% 1.0% a quarter, well below the 7.9% four-quarter average, because that average is driven by one $337M quarter in 2025 Q3.
Other

Latest: $267M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $242M
2024Q2 $208M
2024Q3 $263M
2024Q4 $191M
2025Q1 $213M
2025Q2 $202M
2025Q3 $337M
2025Q4 $191M
2026Q1 $187M
2026Q2 $205M
2026Q3E $208M
2026Q4E $212M
2027Q1E $215M
2027Q2E $218M
2027Q3E $221M
2027Q4E $224M
2028Q1E $227M
2028Q2E $230M
2028Q3E $233M
2028Q4E $236M
2029Q1E $239M
2029Q2E $242M
2029Q3E $245M
2029Q4E $248M
2030Q1E $251M
2030Q2E $254M
2030Q3E $257M
2030Q4E $261M
2031Q1E $264M
2031Q2E $267M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Left ASEASONAL on the brief's own diagnostics: the apparent Q3 factor of 1.33 rests on two observations, $262.8M in 2024 Q3 and $337.2M in 2025 Q3, and the Q1 factor moves 0.104 between the two windows - larger than three of the four factors' deviation from 1.0.
  • The 2024-vintage 10-Q presented a narrower 'Other' line, $50.0M for 2024 Q2 against the restated $207.6M, and only the restated basis makes the five areas sum to reported consolidated revenue. Every figure here is on the restated basis.
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