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LLY · Forward model · Neuroscience · Bear case

What has to happen in Neuroscience

Model as of

This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $377.66 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $484M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.04B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Take the guidance literally. Raised full-year guidance of $85.0-$87.0 billion against $42.773 billion already booked in the first half leaves $42.2-$44.2 billion for the second - flat to slightly up sequentially after a first half that grew 51% year over year. This case assumes that is real: the prior-period rebate and discount adjustments and the $250 million Jardiance milestone that flattered the first half are stripped out as a 10% level step on the cardiometabolic run rate, trend growth runs a point a quarter below base, margin gives up three points to price erosion, and the exit multiple compresses to 4.5x revenue. FY2026 lands at $85.9 billion, inside the guided range and near its bottom.

Neuroscience

Basis quarter$429M
Final quarter$484M
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix2%

Kisunla ramping inside a decaying legacy base. At $429M it is 1.9% of revenue, the smallest therapeutic line and the least consequential to the valuation, but it is the one line whose disclosed history is a launch curve rather than a business.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $316M Reported
2025 Q4 $459M Estimated
2026 Q1 $382M Reported
2026 Q2 $429M Reported
Kisunlaother neuroscience
Sequential growth +4.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 4.0% a quarter, half the noisy 8.2% four-quarter average, because the ramp sits inside a legacy base that is still shrinking.
Neuroscience

Latest: $484M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $389M
2024Q2 $340M
2024Q3 $352M
2024Q4 $394M
2025Q1 $272M
2025Q2 $344M
2025Q3 $316M
2025Q4 $459M
2026Q1 $382M
2026Q2 $429M
2026Q3E $442M
2026Q4E $452M
2027Q1E $462M
2027Q2E $469M
2027Q3E $475M
2027Q4E $480M
2028Q1E $484M
2028Q2E $487M
2028Q3E $489M
2028Q4E $490M
2029Q1E $491M
2029Q2E $492M
2029Q3E $492M
2029Q4E $491M
2030Q1E $490M
2030Q2E $489M
2030Q3E $488M
2030Q4E $487M
2031Q1E $485M
2031Q2E $484M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Left ASEASONAL on the research brief's own diagnostics: residual noise of 0.110 log-points is the largest of any line and is of the same order as the apparent Q4 uplift, whose estimate moves from 1.234 to 1.190 between the two windows. Fitting a season here would be fitting the Kisunla ramp, not a repeating calendar shape.
  • Kisunla grew from $49M in 2025 Q2 to $167M in 2026 Q2 while the rest of the line shrank, so the reported total understates the launch and overstates the base.
  • Outside-US neuroscience revenue fell from $2,183M in FY2023 to $694M in FY2024 to $394M in FY2025, which is why the ten-quarter history for this line is not a stable base to extrapolate from.
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